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GT Advanced Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Oct 18, 2013 10:19 AM Flag

    We Have a Seeking Alpha Article for Triple by Dec 2015

    Well researhced and written article. The link is now on the GTAT Summary page.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Good article, thanks for the heads up, will be bookmarking it for future reference......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Well that's not that exceptional considering that there are other solar stocks that flew $30 or more in one year.
      hopefully the same can happen with GTAT. Maybe gtat is underarated.

    • So highlights for everyone.

      2015 revenue estimates

      Poly $700m
      Sapphire $350m (led and cover)
      Hyperion $350m
      PV $140m
      Silicon carbide $0
      Total $1.54b

      Sapphire looks low by $500-1b to me if cover screens take off. Price to gg should be even or close enough to force large adoption.

      • 1 Reply to mungee24
      • It seems like all these analysts and commentators on GTAT want to hedge their bet on the sapphire angle and make up some nominal revenue amount instead of actually estimating sapphire adoption. If you truly believe that Apple will adapt a sapphire screen and the Hyperion Ion tech will work like Apple's patent on laminate screens seems to intimate and other competitors might follow than sapphire estimates are ridiculously low. 5% adoption estimates to get GTAT maybe 1-2 billion in sapphire revenue alone. So Apple alone going sapphire cover might be closer to 5 billion.

    • I like it. I belive it's very realistic. I do believe sapphire cover of $350m in 2015 may be way too low if cover screen adoption takes off before that.

      This analysis has led me to the conclusion that revenues will reach $1.54B in 2015. If we take into consideration:

      1. Gross margin at 30%.

      2. OPEX coming down to be 15% of revenues or $231M.

      3. A tax expense of $22M

      we end up with $200M of net income. I expect the net income growth rate will be 15%, which I think is conservative given the expected growth rates in end markets. Assuming a PEG ratio of 1, we get a market cap of $3B which is 200% more than today's market cap of $1B.

      To conclude, it is clear that all three of the markets which GT operate in are set to grow. GT is positioned very well to enjoy that growth. With revenues hitting an all time low in the last quarter, unless core markets growth change direction, it seems that GT will have a limited downside going forward.

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