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REEDS, Inc. Message Board

  • jamcracker25 jamcracker25 Jun 5, 2013 4:24 PM Flag

    Q2 2013 projection

    Revenue: $9.3m - $9.8m
    EPS: Breakeven to 1c profit

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    • Good call. EPS call (EPS Breakeven Breakeven to 1c profit) should also be on target. Could possibly hit 2c with 34% margin and no addition to sales force over 1st qtr. The good new is they could finish year with positive eps for the remaining qtrs.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to wilecpa
      • Wilecpa
        Q2 projection was spot on (I was disappointed there was no margin improvement and if you factor back the PL charge of $412k - loss was fraction of a penny):

        jamcracker25 • Jun 26, 2013 11:21 AM
        ....For me PL revenue is the unknown and for bottomline for now it is plant issue (transportation + idle capacity).
        Q2 2013 income statement and conference call should clarify plant issues.
        I tightened my Q2 2013 projection to $9.4m - $9.8m revenue.
        Based on 31% margins it comes to 1/2 cent loss to 1c profit....

      • Thank you Wilecpa.
        I am working on updating my EPS numbers - working freight cost (less temperature control) and idle capacity - will read the transcript plus my notes and update later.
        If you recall my 6/26 post to you (see below):
        jamcracker25 • Jun 26, 2013 11:21 AM

        Thanks wilecpa.
        I am factoring minimum 10% to the top line revenue growth thanks to K - so your $35.1m in annual revenue VERY conservative.
        For me PL revenue is the unknown and for bottomline for now it is plant issue (transportation + idle capacity).
        Q2 2013 income statement and conference call should clarify plant issues.
        I tightened my Q2 2013 projection to $9.4m - $9.8m revenue.
        Based on 31% margins it comes to 1/2 cent loss to 1c profit.
        Based on 32% margin it comes to 1/2 cent profit to 1.5c profit.
        So basically a revenue number north of $9.4m OR margins north of 31% and the company will post a quarterly profit. If both revenue above $9.4m AND margins higher then 31%...would be the best combo.

    • My conservative revenue projection of $9.3m is because of PL business - its a lumpy/seasonal business.
      My conservative EPS projection is because of unknowns like shipping from east coast to west coat for branded products, promotional cost for K and idle capacity hit while Mr. Chemical Engineer retools the west coast plant.

      Q4 2012 P&L got hit with raw material loss, massive K promotions and label-gate.
      Q1 2013 hit was because of freight cost, temperature controlled freight cost, idle capacity cost and K promotional expense.
      So makes sense to be conservative - especially on the EPS front.

      Revenue wise it will be a record but not when it comes to EPS (Q2 2012 EPS was 4c profit).

    • I did an estimate a couple weeks ago. Pretty much matches your low end numbers.
      Rev 9.3m
      GP at 33% 3.069m
      SG&A 2.9m
      int 165
      Breakeven
      Hopefully we'll both be low on revenue.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Either of the two projections are valid possibilities for Q2. Rest assured, the company will make a profit in the QTR. Momentum favors momentum and I believe they are at last coming into stride$

      • 1 Reply to boardwalk97
      • Those revenue figures look good.

        Just thought I'd add that Reed's got three mentions in Whole Foods Mag (June) in the What's Selling section. Can't link, must go to website on your own to look. Last month they were in once for their kombucha in St. Louis.

        1. Northeast - Sage Heath Foods - Brooklyn, NY - REED’S Inc., Ginger Brew;

        2. Northwest - Bonanza Health Foods - Billings, MT - REED’S Inc., Virgil’s Root Beer;

        3. West - Healthy Nut - Susanville, CA - REED’S Inc., Extra Ginger Brew;

    • $10.1 m - .02 eps record qtr....best guess

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
REED
6.02+0.36(+6.36%)Mar 5 4:00 PMEST

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