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  • dolphinooo dolphinooo Sep 9, 2013 8:58 PM Flag

    Latest Kodak Presentation "Kodak What's Next"

    - It's the first time I saw a more specific number for Kodak's emerging functional printing business. It struck me how small their expected "addressed market" is for functional printing.

    Packaging: $2B
    Graphic Communication: $13B
    Functional Printing: $2B

    If you allow me to take a seat-of-the-pants guess of 20% market share for Kodak and its partners, incl. UNXL, that would imply $400 m of revenue from that market. Assume that half of it goes to Kodak and half to its partners, and you end with revenue of $200 m for Kodak .... not bad, but that number wouldn't rock Kodak's boat, esp. in 2014. (If I were an UNXL investor, this addressed market size would scare the hell out of me.)

    - Kodak now bundles/obfuscates inkjet with traditional print (much of it is plating). Too bad, they don't tell us how big the addressed market for their commercial inkjet printers / Prosper XL's is.

    - Good thing they still acknowledge to be on track with their EBITDA prognostications for 2013. I agree this should be doable. But I certainly can't trace Perez's expected revenues/EBITDA for 2014 into the real world yet, given the expected decline of their high margin consumer ink sales in 2014. With the muted addressed market size for functional printing, Perez's numbers sound like wishful thinking again. No surprise here. Maybe, they plan on acquiring UNXL _if_ Uniboss is a viable product, which would boost revenues and EBITDA but likely dilute the new shareholders ...

    EBITDA : On track to deliver $167 million in 2013 and $494 million in 2017
    Capital Structure: Approximately $500 million in equity; Debt of $695 million; and Cash of more than $800 million at emergence.

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    • kidkodak@ymail.com kidkodak Sep 10, 2013 9:19 AM Flag

      dolph, I think you should focus more on the fact that UNXL is a shell game. The company is run by a bunch of con men who are just hyping a technology that has not been proven to work. They are building plants with Other peoples money. ALL the insiders are selling most of their holdings. What does that tell ya?

      • 2 Replies to kidkodak
      • "... dolph, I think you should focus more on the fact that UNXL is a shell game. ..."

        That's what I am trying to figure out. I am trying to figure out whether there's some living technology - a viable Uniboss - inside this shell. I would NEVER invest in UNXL. But Kodak is a different story, IMO, after they "improved" their balance sheet by courtesy of updated.robot's and littlefred's sacrifice. Kodak's $167 m of EBITDA in 2013 does not depend on UNXL, so IMO for a few Q's the company should trade _at least_ around the announced PPS on emergence.

        "... They are building plants with Other peoples money. ..."

        That's the confusing part. Apparently, UNXL did get some milestone cash and both Kodak and UNXL suggest they are on track building their production lines in Rochester. Even revenues of only $100 m from the UNXL partnership would be nothing to sneeze at, and it would give Kodak's new functional printing business more credibility. Needless to say, it wouldn't be the first time that Kodak screwed up with product introductions, but it would certainly be another eyebrow-raising flop right after BK emergence. We should know over the next six months.

      • Thanks for the info Kid!

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