Get ready for the drop in AH. The only hope anybody has to make money being long BEBE is for a buyout offer. BEBE could be a great company...if you fire management and start over.
I agree. It's obvious that the past and present management only serves their own selfish interest. They don't care about the investors who support them. I worked hard to lose me investment in Bebe!
Thanks for your response.
I tend to agree, what you said,
I also believe Bebe has still some work to do on their turn around. To me this looks just technical rally, which doesn't have real legs.
I'm very impressed Caché's turnaround. It was first pure balance sheet play 09, (cash + 2$ per share), but now finally 2011, when I look their merchandise & latest reports. It’s easy to see, how transformation has been tangible and they are finally thriving. In my view, their SSS might be up (low) double digits, 2H2011. So load up the truck, there too, cash balance is huge, which may confuse to think that stock is expensive.
Okay, take care!
I've looked at Cache before. It is also an interesting turnaround situation much like Bebe. Michael Price is a large shareholder and holds 17% of the outstanding stock in Cache. Unfortunately, I'm pretty exposed to thte retail sector already.
One of the reasons that I like Bebe at $6+/- is that it has $190M+/- in cash ($2.25+/- per share) and another $75M+/- in auction rate securities ($.90+/- per share). Bebe has been slowly liquidating the ARS and has monetized about $40M (non UBS settlement) into cash over the past 12 months. The cash and ARS is equal to 1/2 the stock price.
Bebe is earning nothing on this cash so I think there might be a special dividend in December. The CFO has already indicated on the last earnings call that he would not recommend another stock buyback. They don't need to hold all this cash to run the business.
The big key to this stock is too drive sales back up. If Bebe can finally get its retail operations back on track after really struggling for the past 3 years, then there is big upside in the stock. There are finally early signs of improvements in the business. The new president seems to have made good moves especially to the new merchandise. Unfortunately there is still a long ways too go.
Difficult to see any catalyst here. We advice you, to unload BEBE and Load up the truck, with Caché's common stock. Thats the way to outperform market with wide margin (next couple years). Their turnaround is done, and that somethting what you cannot say about Bebe Inc.
Disclosure: Long [CACH]
Given the big jump in the stock, I sold $8 September 2011 covered calls at $.55 each in the middle of the day. I think the stock will probably hold steady over the next couple months then start to trend upward in October / November going into the holiday season.
I apologize. I overreacted. I wanted to blame management for the 21% drop in book value/share over the past three years. However, I forgot about the $1/share special dividend paid out this summer. So, book value/share only dropped 3% over the past 3 years after factoring out the drop due to the special dividend.
Management deserves a hearty congrats from me and the rest of the shareholders for keeping this ship from sinking and preventing the book value/share from dropping more than 3% over the past three years. We should also applaud their efforts to plug the other leaks in this ship by planning to shut FORTY-NINE stores and opening EIGHT stores in 2011.
I thought that to grow a retail stock, management had to work on increasing revenue. I also thought that to increase revenue, management had to open more stores than they closed.
But, you are correct. I am an idiot. Management should continue forging ahead with their plan, and the top six members of management should continue paying themselves an average of $1 million/year.
By the way, how can management close 48 PH8 stores when the press release states the company currently operates 31 PH8 stores?