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Bebe Stores, Inc. Message Board

  • Pickle_007 Pickle_007 Apr 10, 1999 3:11 AM Flag

    BFCI (Braun's Fashions) posted their

    record year end (2/27/99) earnings this week and
    and they've beat all Analyst's projections.
    I've
    been using the $ 1.18 (increased from $ 1.17) for
    the
    number to expect. As the 4th Q rolled on the with
    the
    favorable SSS reporting continously over the past
    several
    months, I had hopes that maybe even the $ 1.18 would
    be
    topped and with $ 1.30 per share reported, the $
    1.18
    was topped by $ .12 or another 10
    %.

    BFCI
    (Braun's Fashions Corp) reported $ 2 M in earnings or
    $
    .43 per share on $ 31.4 M in sales, a 15 %
    increase
    in sales, compared to the previous year's Q 4 of
    $
    27.3 M in sales and $ 710 K in earnings or $ .13
    per
    share.

    For the full year ended 2/27/99, BFC had sales of
    $
    110.1 M, up 11 % from the previous full year's $
    99.5,
    and earnings this year of $ 6.2 M, up from
    last
    year's $ 4.3 M. Earnings for the full year were $
    1.30
    per share compared to $ .89, a $ .41 per
    share
    increase or 46 % AHEAD of last
    year.

    Significant
    improvements and accomplishments were made this year
    such
    as:

    * Improved 4th Q gross margins by 210 basis
    points
    and full year results by 60 basis
    points.

    *
    Opened 24 new stores and branced into new
    markets
    including upper New York State.

    * Increased SSS
    by
    4% in Q 4 and 3% for entire year. The 3 % SSS
    gains
    for the year follow 2 consecutive years of strong
    10
    % increases.

    * Expanded the
    successful
    sweater business which accounted for 29 % of
    sales
    compared to 26 % for previous year.

    *
    Maintained
    strong inventory management by finishing year with
    the
    same total inventory as previous year,
    while
    increasing net store count by 9 %.

    *
    Strengthened
    balance sheet

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    • I agree considering where bebe first opened back
      in June, even at this level it is a great return.
      Actually, I am not to worried about the price right now,
      since we have seen this pattern previously. The reasons
      to be long on this stock have not changed, in fact I
      believe the outlook is getting better, especially with
      the write-up in Business Week. Actually, it would be
      interesting to see some numbers on institutional holdings
      right now.

      Just like last quarter, when we
      touched $50 mark, we should see a steady rise the weeks
      preceeding quarterly announcement, with a peak a couple of
      weeks following that.

      I will only start to worry
      if market conditions are steady and that pattern
      doesn't hold true this time around.

      Still long on
      BEBE

    • I really enjoyed your posts with regard to
      inflation. I've been away for a bit, and am just getting
      caught up. I suppose people are looking towards this
      friday's numbers already. I agree with you that it would
      be many months before the fed would have enough info
      to lean toward a sequence of rate hikes. Isn't it
      amazing how the market priced in the first hike as soon
      as they announced a bias to tightening. As far as
      BEBE goes....today was dissapointing! I was looking at
      the charts for PSUN, and WTSLA and they are now
      showing a striking resemblence to BEBE's.
      It's as if
      the MM's are looking for a slowdown in retail sales
      and consumer spending in general, even though it
      continues to grow. It seems some posters on this board
      forget that the stock has gone from 11 to 27 in less
      than a year. (I'll take that return
      anytime!)

      Still long and bullish on BEBE

    • I thought I once saw that he did. He is heavy in the retail industry. Good sign if you like him.

      http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990602/bdl.html

    • Look for mid 40s come mid JULY !!!

    • that speciality retailers were reporting strong
      sales even without memorial day weekend
      included.

      Also:
      http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990603/news/current/sector.htx?source=blq/y
      hoo&dist=yhoo

    • The rating came just after the stock bottomed at 26.375 on May 27. That means the sell-off was over.

    • Great Pumba, good points, some I had not even
      considered.

      -I agree that the market is already factoring in a
      rate increase. In fact, that is Greenspan's basic
      philosphy, let the market make the moves for him. (Sidenote:
      from an conservative economic view, Greenspan is a
      genious!)

      -I don't think a series of rate hikes are in the
      cards yet, at most maybe a single increase to jolt the
      market with the continued "threat" of higher interest
      rates should keep things in check. Of course, if the
      PPI and CPI show a dramatic change over the next few
      months, coupled with low unemployment, that will change
      real fast! Barring that I still feel the 8-12 month
      timetable is still realistic, before inflation starts
      up.

      Along those lines, as we have agreed the market is
      already anticipating at least a quarter point move, so I
      don't think this will take any steam out of the market
      if it happens.

      The FED is also got to keep
      an eye on the trade deficit, it keeps surpassing
      record levels yet the dollar maintains it's strength
      (FYI..an insightful commentary in this week's Business
      Week addresses this topic). Economic theory would lead
      us to believe this is going to correct itself, by a
      strong downturn in the dollar. Which would give the FED
      something else to figure into the interest rate
      picture.

      -Considering oil is back near it's pre-deflationary price, I
      can't see it holding there too long. Prices have
      already started creeping back down. Your right world
      demand is still no where near levels necessary to create
      a supply problem. And we all no from past history,
      even though OPEC has agreed to limit their output,
      soon it will evident that some countries are
      cheating.

      -As far as gold goes, I can't really add anything,
      because I don't follow it too closely. But inflationary
      periods tend to include large increases in home prices,
      which has been showing good sized increases over the
      last year.

      All said, I think we still have some
      time to make some money in this market.

      Great
      discussion....any others with comments???
      Ray

    • I agree with your points. The NAPM index looked
      too hot. I also saw the news on cost of materials
      going up. PPI should be REALLY interesting to watch.
      The employment report due Friday + when the bond
      yield hits 6% should also be an interesting glitch. A
      few discussion comments:

      - It felt to me today
      that about a 1/4 point increase in rates is getting
      factored in with the market's price slide. So even if the
      rate hike happens, maybe its already getting factored
      in.

      - Many more months of monitoring by the FED will be
      needed to go toward a policy of a SEQUENCE of increases.
      After all, it has usually been a policy of a series of
      tightening moves that kill stocks. Not just one move.
      Hopefully, there will be plenty of time to further look at
      economic strength before we see further tightenings.


      - The world's economy is not strong enough yet to
      handle higher oil prices so I feel we may have leveled
      off here for oil (and possibly further cost increases
      for materials beyond the short term indicators).
      Still needs careful monitoring.

      - Why isn't gold
      making a move if investors are running from inflation?
      Perhaps they are not yet ready to throw in the towel on
      stocks! Maybe they are just getting out of the risky
      internet/tech stuff and waiting to get back in. This may
      actually be a positive for the market since people are
      really paying attention to valuations
      now.


      Bottom line, I'm hoping that even if there is a rate
      hike, it will be once and then the FED will go into a
      monitoring policy for a while. The world economy even though
      stronger is not strong enough to see sustained oil &
      manufacturers price increases therefore inflation fears may
      level off. In which case, the FED may move away from a
      policy of a SERIES of hikes. In this case the market has
      already factored the one rate hike in and we may see a
      rally after we get the FOMC meeting behind us. Any
      comments?

      Good Luck.

    • I read some disturbing news with regard to
      inflation. Actually a minor thing but more evidence pointing
      to inflation increase. This week's issue of Business
      Week, had a minor article relating to new housing
      construction.

      It discussed that the length of time to
      finish a house is steadily increasing this year due to a
      shortage of materials and craft labor. According to the
      article, "..prices on raw materials and labor have shot
      up, on average, between 15% to 20%." If you consider
      that over the next few months we will additional
      strain to this area due to the rebuilding efforts in
      Oklahoma and Kansas.

      If there is any plus side, it
      would be existing homeowners. All the tightness in the
      new home market is spilling over to existing homes,
      which is showing strong price gains. This will keep
      many consumers confident and add to their wealth as
      well as purchasing power (hopefully alot of if spent
      at bebe stores!!)

      This morning I was also
      reading an article at ABCnews.com that pointed to
      evidence of rising prices in the manufacturing sector, the
      first time in a couple of years. All I can say is that
      these input prices have been deflationary for more than
      a year and a half and we should expect to see some
      upside movement right now. However, with the low
      utilization rates of many US factories, these input price
      increases may not effect the consumer for some
      time.

      So my conclusion, I don't have one!! Actually, I am
      very interested to see the PPI this month and next. I
      am fairly confident this will be the harbinger of
      inflation if it's on it's way.

      Do you have a feeling
      either way?

      Ray

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BEBE
0.5628-0.0151(-2.61%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT