and sitting on support, this stock is ready to
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I saw the numbers and thought we were OK, but I
am not so sure anymore. After doing some more
research, I think we should expect the fed to raise rates
this next meeting by 1/4 point. Obviously, looking at
the market today, others are thinking the same
Japan is coming back (a surprise so quickly) and strong
retail numbers proving that the economy may not be
slowing on it's own.
I apologize for my over
exuberance, but in this dismal market I needed something to
cheer about. Have a good weekend all.
twenty, stkstreet, others: unfortunately it won't
be whether the companies are Y2K compliant but
rather investors/consumers perceptions of whether
they'll be Y2K compliant. Personally, i agree with
stkstreet and think it'll cause some glitches, but nothing
catastrophic.... also, international, particularly 3rd world are
behind the USA.
Incidentally, analysts are
expecting a significant amount of hoarding in the 4Q this
year. I've read as high as 0.2% spike in
The last minute sell-off looks like a day trader
pattern, but our volume hasn't been all that high; maybe
with the low float, a sell-off has a more dramatic
The PPI up only .2, what was anticipated. The
best news is that the core rate up only .1, and is
flat for the first 5 months of 1999 vs 1.9% for 1998.
Now we just have to hope that
the CPI falls in line....if so I can almost guarantee
no rate increase later this month. Still may happen
down the road.....
Have a great weekend..... go
Sorry about the delayed post. I was really busy
today at work + had guests this evening till about 10
minutes ago. I agree with both of your assessments
(stkstreet on bond market analysis, pare_Ray on Japanese
strong economic report+ bebe shoes comments). I also
strongly agree with ntshill post 827 related to bebe
financial statement assessment (hardly any debt + managed
and self financed growth).
In summary, finally
today after the strong economic world data, people
accepted and "expect" a tightening move by the Fed at the
FOMC meeting. If the PPI tomorrow is Incredibly out of
wack it may pull us further under since it may hint at
further tightening moves after the first one coming up.
If not, then we should see a small rally next week,
then a sideways market til end of June due to lack of
earnings reports, then a rally after the FOMC meeting
(regardless of tightening by 1/4 point or not). PPI tomorrow
is key. I think expectation is about 0.2%. I still
see bebe blowing the doors off of their next earnings
report and climing fast to much higher prices.
Actually with all the mixed signals out there I
am afraid I am not sure of the answer. If there was
already strong evidence that inflation is back, high
continued retail (industry wide) figures would indicate the
FED needs to take additional action to slow the
economy before consumers push inflation into hyperspeed
and vice versa...
So IMO in response to you I
would have to say it depends on where you think
inflation is at the moment. We should know a lot more
before bebe releases there quarterly results next
I know my response appears to be fence stradling,
but it's the economist blood in me!
I will be
watching closely tomorrow when the PPI is released!!!
news story about Japan's strengthening. I guess
that's why the futures index was off 8 points, and the
market openned up down from the get go. That news is
just more ammunition for the fed to hike rates.
Frankly I think the bond market damage is over...in fact
they look attractive to me. Lets keep our fingers
crossed for the upcoming CPI, and PPI reports.