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BEBE will trade up long term by late DEC. and
early Jan. in the mid 50's. 1) People are spending
money like crazy which will continue thanks to the job
market. 2) Back to school this Fall (every girl is
dressing up like Alley) 3) Holiday seasons approaching
Nov. and Dec.. These are perfect conditions for BEBE
to rise. In the short term probably won't trade
Now if BEBE could only get Mia Hamm
and the Women's Soccer team as a sponsor, BEBE would
be on top of the world. They are the hotest team on
I hope you guys are doing great. Something I
heard today on CNBC: the productivity number has some
seasonality associated with it so the comparison should not
be to last quarter, but really to the same quarter
of last year. If you do that comparison one sees
that productivity has indeed gone up comparitively
every quarter. Yet I think your main point is correct.
They expected to see 2%, yet we ended up at
As far keying in on these two reports as to why the
market is going crazy, I've had my eye on these for the
last 2 weeks. I think I reported on this in post 1163.
My thought was, and still is, that the timing of
these reports is good and along strong SSS from bebe.
Institutions would most likely be cautious and stay on the
sidelines until this data is out. If things look good, they
will come in and buy, squeezing the shorts out in a
big way. bebe right now is not only a "Growth" play,
but also a "value" play, and most likely will soon be
a "momentum" play. It will be tough to keep Russel
2000 fund managers off of this thing.
beyond the economic issues, things (with high
bang-for-the-buck) to look for are indications that the long-term
growth numbers for the company to be re-adjusted upward
due to the phenomenal growth they are experiencing.
One such news was the opening of the 20 stores next
year instead of 15, which again points to how
undervalued this stock is at this time. Lets hope tomorrow's
economic news on employment is tame enough that the
institutions start coming in on the long side.
The last time I was in the stock, I entered at
around $22 and sold 4 days later at around $30. This
stock trades so abnormally. Again, I must stress the
low float of the stock. The chairman owns, I beleive
over 80% of the outstanding stock. The float is VERY
SMALL. I just got back in today at under $25 and will
sell next week when it hits $30. I don't see why it
wont. H&Q has a $50 price target. BankBoston is behind
the stock, and has been for a very long time. So, I
dont think you'll see $50, or even $45, but mid $30's
should be approachable.
True to form BEBE is down again. BEBE SUCKS!
Still long with BEBE but with a heavy heart. How long
do we have to wait for the price to go up.....
imagine down $10 dollars in 2 weeks even after good news
upon good news. Again no support price in sight. Hope
a rally will ensue in order to kill the shorts this
time around. I cant wait for the shorts to get hard
end of the stick once...
Enjoyed reading your posts. Pumba....The SSS
numbers were outstanding! Thanks for posting the list.
Bebe's earnings, combined with todays numbers should put
to rest any fears that "Longs" have had over the
past couple of months. As a company they've done all
they can. Now it's up to the investment community.
Pare Ray, I agree with you about the Fed, and the
economic reports. Especially the ECI. I think the market
is oversold at this point, and if tomarrows numbers
look good, we might see a strong rally. (whether it
holds prior to the next FOMC meeting is another story).
I'm keeping a close eye on DOW 10,490. That number
represents the market's June low, and if it closes below
that level, I think the market could really
tank.(IMHO) Hopefully, we are finding the bottom of a trading
It appears that BEBE's first quarter is a forgone
conclusion....(another great one)....Hopefully the market will start
helping us out soon.
I wonder what you are thinking... this morning
Apr-Jun quarter productivity slowed to a 1.3% increase,
(previous quarter was 3.6%) and the ECI came out last week
at an 1.1% increase more than doubling the previous
quarter. Appears to be increasing inflation indicators,
esp after what Greenspan implied in his recent
remarks to congress.
From what he said, I believe
he is watching these numbers more than any others.
In fact, Rep F. Barney asked him "what amount of
growth is sustainable?" he basically avoided a number
anwser and referred to several indicators he would be
watching closely, including productivity and the
I think this is what is driving the market crazy
So, any opinion either way?
The 18% SSS was not a surprise, but the 45%
increase in sales tells me that the licensing, shoes
sales, and new stores continue to be strong. The stock
is down but I have not worries here. With the
holidays just peeking over the horizon and brand
acceptance really hot the longs will prevail. I already own
3k shares, but will double my position if it gets to
the low 20's.
Best SSS reported that I could find so far in the
retail industry. Small Cap institutional investors are
bound to take notice of this. Perhaps waiting until the
two key economic reports come out this Thursday, and
Friday. The data below was posted on the Motely Fool so
we should get good exposure to general investors as
well. Just a small buying will make lots of shorts
July Retail Same-Store Sales
- Ann Taylor
Stores (NYSE: ANN) -- up 7.2%
- American Eagle
Outfitters (Nasdaq: AEOS) -- up 13.5%
- bebe stores
(Nasdaq: BEBE) -- up 18.6%
- Bon-Ton Stores (Nasdaq:
BONT) -- down 1.5%
- The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) -- down
- CarMax Group (NYSE: KMX) -- down 3%
Circuit City Group (NYSE: CC) -- up 15%
Consolidated Stores (NYSE: CNS) -- up 3.6%
- Costco Cos.
(Nasdaq: COST) -- up 11%
- Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) -- up
- Dollar General (NYSE: DG) -- up 10.7%
Factory 2-U Stores (Nasdaq: FTUS) -- up 11.2%
Federated Department Stores (NYSE: FD) -- up 4.7%
Footstar (NYSE: FTS) -- down 1.8%
- Haverty Furniture
Cos. (NYSE: HVT) -- up 14%
- J.C. Penney (NYSE:
JCP) -- department stores up 4.1%; drug stores up 8%
- Men's Wearhouse (Nasdaq: SUIT) -- up 4.1%
Michaels Stores (Nasdaq: MIKE) -- up 4%
- Mothers Work
(Nasdaq: MWRK) -- up 12.1%
- Musicland Stores (NYSE:
MLG) -- up 2.4%
- Pacific Sunwear of California
(Nasdaq: PSUN) -- up 9%
- S&K Famous Brands (Nasdaq:
SKFB) -- no change
- Sharper Image (Nasdaq: SHRP)
-- up 17%
- Stage Stores (NYSE: SGE) -- down
5.7% (fiscal second quarter)
- Sunglass Hut
International (Nasdaq: RAYS) -- up 7.4%
- Talbots (NYSE:
TLB) -- up 14.4%
- Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- up 9.6%
- Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC) -- up 5.6% (fiscal fourth