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Bebe Stores, Inc. Message Board

  • buffetts_dartman buffetts_dartman Jan 20, 2000 3:29 PM Flag

    Calm down..I'm right here...listen to

    me: This is n-o-t good. All signs point to $19
    tomorrow. If we test that level, be prepared to break the
    bottom. If we hold, we should be steady from TA analysis
    back to $25 support.

    Short term very bearish
    across the board. Long term outlook remains super
    bullish. Long term just got a little longer for those of
    you looking to cash profits in the high
    $20's.

    If you don't understand why we tanked, sell
    immediately because you don't know enough to own this stock.
    Never forget Buffet's philosophy.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Don't be too hard on yourself. I traded it a few
      times between 12 and 15, but backed off as it started
      to climb because it no longer had a trading range.
      SOOOO many people were nervous about where the marked
      would head after October of 98 that for all you knew,
      it could have tanked back to 12. I'll give you one
      more bad story as to why you should stick out a
      position that you believe in. In the spring of 98 I
      started to load up on DAVX. It had fallen from its highs
      in the high 30s to 20. I bought very aggressively
      between 17 and 20 dollars a share. The company fell out
      of favor with analysts due to some management
      changes and some slowing sales growth, despite the fact
      that it was very profitable and still growing nicely
      and always seemed to be a potential buyout by some
      larger telecomm company. Combine that with the overall
      market sell-off, it tanked to 5 dollars a share by the
      fall of 98. I sold in a panic and took the worst
      beating of my life. I still like to follow its progress
      (self-flagellation) and yesterday it touched 28 dollars a share. If
      you believe in the fundamentals and future prospects
      of your company, then try to ride it out. I have not
      even come close to making up what I lost on DAVX - so,
      while the argument - sell now so it is not dead money -
      may work for some - I would have been MUCH better off
      just letting it sit for 14 months and then jumping
      back into the trading waters with a lot more capital.
      BEBE may never touch 50 again (I look at SUIT and how
      it has never retraced old highs despite very good
      growth) but it will bounce back and make you something -
      instead of taking a loss and trying to jump into
      something else and make up for it. JMHO

      Matt

    • In the fall of 1998, I was researching brokers,
      trying to decide who to trust with my modest nestegg. I
      had been trying for several years to learn enough to
      be ready to put my money on the line in the stock
      market. I had taken a couple of econ courses in college,
      read Peter Lynch's book _One Up on Wall Street_, had
      joined AAII and was reading their educational
      materials.

      When the Asian meltdown occurred, ADI dropped to
      12.00. My husband, who is in the industry, had just
      visited ADI, personally knows their management and
      business model, and had heard a presentation on a number
      of the products they had in the pipeline. He came
      home and told me to buy ADI. The fact we still didn't
      have a brokerage account set up, combined with my own
      insecurities over making my Very First Investment, caused me
      to wait several months. ADI closed over 100 on
      January 14th, and has been hovering around that range
      since. If I had simply taken a deep breath and plunged
      in, we would have had an 8-bagger in 14
      months.

      We won't discuss my actual experience to date as an
      investor. The fact that I'm on the BEBE board probably says
      enough.

    • Many, many positives but as I have stated in
      previous posts, and I will re-iterate again here, if the
      merchandise selection becomes out of favor with the bebe
      customer for a period of time, there could be greatly
      eroded margins and significantly reduced profits. Any
      new merchandising executive coming into this
      organization will bring fresh, new offerings to the bebe
      customer. The question is whether the bebe customer will
      accept the change...based solely on her instincts. On
      the other hand, mostly all the subordinate
      merchandisers reporting to Greg are good businesswomen. Their
      numbers focus is good...it boils down to merchandoise
      selection. Good luck to all

    • my wife and I are launching a .com targeted at
      teen girls. We have some innovative ideas and
      proprietary technology that will make online shoping fun.
      We'll be looking for a merchandising VP and would love
      to talk to you. E-mail us at
      inevitably@hotmail.com.

      Everyone else please excuse this message.

      Neal

    • Dude: It will not be hard to replace greg scott.
      This is not rocket science. How hard can it be to
      replicate the bebe formula. Short skirts, tight pants and
      tops that show cleavage. And hire BABES to work in new
      store openings. Come on T&A has been selling for years
      and it is not going to stop anytime soon. One would
      have to be a monkey to screw up the BEBE formula.

    • "Even if Manny were willing to spend the bucks to
      buy a big talent,, he most likely will not be willing
      to pay them"

      Either he will be willing to
      pay or he or he won't, we will see.

      I don't
      doubt that what you did was valuable and you were
      obviously quite good at it, on the overall scheme maybe
      Manny didn't concur that you were as big a piece of the
      company's success as you did (you are probably both
      partially wrong). The beauty is the future will tell which
      of you was more correct and investors can place
      their bets accordingly.

      I personally love Bebe
      and the girls that wear it (they are the finest, at
      least here in LA). I have let that belief in the
      company get in the way of my making some mistakes short
      term in the stock. I have grown tired of getting my
      ass kicked by the stock (lost about twice as much as
      I made on sevaral trades even though I dodged this
      last dive from 24) and will wait for it to behave a
      little better before getting back in.

      Best of
      luck.

    • Now, "as a former Bebe exec" tell us if you see
      any positive things about the company.

      Also,
      do you think "fresh" talent can also have a positive
      impact in Bebe�s growth?.

      We all know that when
      you do something for an extended period (3 or more
      years) you loose creativity and your selections may
      become "boring" (as in Ann Taylor).

    • Dear Disgruntled FORMER Employee,

      I know
      merchandising. I used to work in Merchandising. Your argument,
      while interesting, is not compelling. Manny will find a
      replacement. Manny will pay that replacement. That replacement
      will do the job and customer demand will be met. There
      will be no shortage of fabric. But I thank you for
      your post and wish you well Greg, uh, I mean, former
      BEBE exec.

      Kisses
      Dartman

    • as long as u have the fabric on hand. The process
      of acquiring the correct fabric and color story is
      what a merchandiser does far in advance. Very often,
      unless a large enough position is taken with a fabric
      mill far enough in advance, you can't get the raw
      materials u need when u need them to respond to the
      consumers demands. It is interesting to me (as a former
      bebe exec) that most of the posts on this board are
      about stock flucuation yet very few of you understand
      the inner workings of a trendy, fashion apparel
      company. The analyists are right on with their concers
      about replacing a talented merchandiser. Even if Manny
      were willing to spend the bucks to buy a big talent,
      he most likely will not be willing to pay
      them...this could be a much bigger problem than most of you
      realize!

    • <EOM>

    • View More Messages
 
BEBE
2.38+0.02(+0.85%)Sep 29 4:00 PMEDT

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