The fundamentalist on this board can talk about how great this stock is but they fail to explain how this stock has been in a freefall since Jan 01 when it traded around $70.
AMRI price declines on high volume and rallies on light volume.
Somebody is making money on this stock and it isn't the long-term investors. I'm a long but, I'm afraid I will not live long enough to recover my investment and I'm only 55.
Just got a report from CSFB. Here's an excerpt:
� AMRI�s Organichem subsidiary reported revenue contraction of 15%, to $16.1 million,
owing to some large contracts not being fulfilled in 3Q02 and spilling over into 4Q02.
This could provide for a platform for better than expected 4Q02 earnings. We expect
management will consolidate Organichem in late 1Q03, following the closing of the
subsidiary�s 2002 financial statements. The unit should generate revenues between
$83-$85 million in 2003 with operating income of $13.7-$14.2 million. The margins at
Organichem should expand over the next two years as it completes existing legacy
contracts, and as it increases its capacity through additional manufacturing suites
expected to open in 2Q03.
The whole report is too long to print here.
Long and strong
Liquidity - Manipulation:
I agree that manipulation is well possible; finally we should be happy if AMRI can buy back shares cheaply from those short-heroes. By the way: WHY do you think that specifically AMRI is a "suitable" target for a shorter? I mean market-technically? Is squeezing-risk here lower than for other stocks???
Interesting in fact: I was wrong; AMRI is in 89% quantile re (daily $-turnover)/Macap, I didn't expect that. Leader = Q-Logic with 20% (!).
<<Since you quote "...Nevertheless the stock price is a complete catastrophe and there is no hope for a change in the medium term..." do we assume you are short, bad trader as SwimmingMan, or just around "pour la beaut� du geste"? >>
If I were short, I wouldn't call this chart a catastrophe...but "wonderful", "marvellous", ha ha. No, I study this stock intensely and may start buying.
Nelson, thanks for the infos re stockholdings. That explains a lot.
I tried to get some current financials of Organichem but didn't find anything on their website; I know that its not listed and therefore not so transparent. Also I was looking in vain for a description of AMRI's view on the expected synergies.
I could imagine the following synergies:
- additional research facilities (laboratories, reactors, human resources, ect.) for AMRI's contract business
- expansion of the chemical engineering know-how (questions of scaling-up, catalysts, yield optimisation, etc.) via Organichem staff; this enables AMRI to offer end-to-end solutions (research + pilot production for testing phases + large scale commercial production)
- of course expansion of customer base
- bargaining power on the purchasing department for raw chemicals
what do you think?
the big boys have been manipulating this stock for quite a few years... its not we little ones..check out institutional trading, and trading floor boys.. you are correct that the stock once hit 70, but only monentarily...dovetail that with the secondary offering a few years back...offering was at $42.50..BIG BOYS DROVE TO 70 ,sold and started shorting, then the BRL generic anda,which is just a scare, then the Wellpoint otc move, also a scare, then BMY contract thing, which was subsequently worked out to amri advantage, then the overall mkt collapse due to economic, geo
political events..all the while amri keeps posting better and better numbers each qtr... thats the trading history in a nutshell..manipulation/scare, pure and simple...eom..nelson
<<..all the while amri keeps posting better and better numbers each qtr... >>
You're right; the monotonity of AMRI's serial revenue growth (I think since more than 20 quarters now) as well as the constancy of its profit margin is striking. But why the hell isn't the stock trading in the range of $40?
I don't believe that the explanation is some kind of manipulation. The big boys hate nothing more than illiquidity.
And that is the real problem of this stock: it has no real market. Look at the ownership: as of Oct-25 53.5% of AMRI is in institutional hands. BUT the rest is not at all free float since 45% is owned by (13) insiders (of which Mr. and Mrs. D'Ambra 30%). You can find the instiutional/insider holding summary on the nasdaq.com site unter Quotes/Stockreport.
This means: an unbelievable 1.5% of the stock, representing a capitalisation of 7.5 mio $ is effectively disposable.
Now I ask: who the hell should make a lobby for this 7.5 mio? Do you want to organize a roadshow through Wallstreet to market this sexy 7.5 mio stocks being worth 20 mio? That's ridiculous. No broker will allocate his best analyst brains "computing time" for this 7.5 mio...
This is why nobody cares about AMRI. What is needed is some broader discussion of this stocks interesting business background in media and this is exactly what I mean with investor relations. Let people talk about AMRIs success. This will encourage the stock price; sooner or later some institutionals start to sell some dusty blocks of AMRI shares they found in their safes and private demand rises. All that is needed is a broader market and more liquidity!!
was based on the opinion of a measely 71 healthcare professional and 500 consumers-----you could get this many people in a survey from a small city of 20,000 people----even if you believe in surveys, i do not think you can call this a credible survey