Wed, Nov 26, 2014, 12:28 PM EST - U.S. Markets close in 3 hrs 32 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

  • knowtain knowtain Apr 11, 2005 12:04 PM Flag

    challenges

    I agree with the shorts that Albany Molecular faces tough challenges. The biopharma industry has suffered some tough years.

    But Albany Molecular is a good company with quality management. The biopharma industry is the best industry considering global demographics and global economic growth.

    Short term pain offers tremendous buying opportunities. My long term price target for AMRI is 4 times book.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • well said.

    • > I choose to be optimistic.

      Be realistic!

    • Bioinvestor makes very good point. Loss of Allegra royalties would be very bad for AMRI. And it's a challenging time for pharmas and biotechs.

      I'm simply optimistic about the future, that management will overcome the challenges. That the current short term challenges present long term opportunities.

      There are many uncertainties about the problems and opportunities. I choose to be optimistic.

    • Backing out royalties gives about a $60 loss last year. Discount write downs (why?) and about $30 M of that loss is attributable to ongoing operations. My inference from the year end results is they were mainly due to medicinal chemistry and Organichem. The situation will get worse as AMRI stated Organichem will lose major products this year! The overhead for medicinal chemists must be much lower than a manufacturing site which is very hard to close down. The solution proposed is for Organichem to start making generics � this will take time, money and hardly realistic given the competition and cost structure of Indian and Chinese firms! Royalties already down 11% last year and will decrease significantly at the end of the year when I believe the Aventis patents will be found invalid. Since there has not been a significant downsizing (remember many Mt. Prospect employees were transferred to �underworked� Albany with the usual expensive relocation package), I predict much of the cash reserve will be used in a massive downsizing rather than dealing with these issues now and downsizing/divesting unprofitable units. Do I think it will crash and burn? The next few quarterly earnings (losses) will be interesting! Why not make your own mind up!

    • You wrote:

      While you are looking at the financials, back out the royalties to obtain a clear picture of how catastrophic it will be when they go!

      ---

      Do you mean that AMR is going to crash and burn? Or am I reading you wrong?

    • knowtain wrote:
      >The biopharma industry is the best industry considering global demographics and global economic growth.

      Yes, biotech and pharma are the best for investment. But point is AMRI is none of them.
      AMRI is just a contractor, period.

      • 1 Reply to peret500
      • > Yes, biotech and pharma are the best for investment. But point is AMRI is none of them.
        AMRI is just a contractor, period.

        Pure biopharmas are a gamble. Albany Molecular will be around a while. Pure biopharmas either get bought up or go bankrupt. Albany Molecular has multiple revenue streams with ability to play biopharma game.

        The idea of patent expiration is good for R&D outsources like Albany Molecular in long term. So short term Allegra pain brings long term gain.

 
AMRI
15.71+0.21(+1.35%)12:22 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.