I spoke to the CFO today and he reiterated that AMRI is on target to meet all business and financial goals, just as they did in the last quarter. Lots of people, including Mark, own stock so they are just as perplexed with the pps as anyone. It is not the case that the company is or was for sale, by the way.
All you can say is that someone with lots of shares doesn't want to own this anymore. AMRI is not on any big time shortie list. So, wait and see. I just bought more.
"You serious about that......"
Hi Mario, Is that a question or a statement?
Meanwhile, capcod3 have you conferred with the CFO lately? If you really bought (more) AMRI on 9 August 2007, the stock closed at $11.57 on that day. These days, even with the recent "rally" (dead cat bounce), the stock is trading around $3.50 and at times it has traded below $3 and hit numerous all-time lows . . . Helloooooooooooooo?
>If the stock cracks $17 again within the next 18 months, think about taking profits. Then wait to see if the Bristol-Myers >Squibb program doesn't fade into obscurity. It took a long time between the announcement of the deal and the >announcement of the first baby step of progress.
Just sold the shares I'd bought at $10. This stock is too volatile for my tastes, though I'll hold the shares I'd bought at $14. Great things may happen in the future, but we'll just wait and see.
You raise a lot of excellent macro economic points. The shift in aging demographics in the major industrialized nations is fueling the need for more, newer, and better drugs.
However, something doesn't seem quite right with this specific company. Something is rotten in Denmark.
Perhaps I am being emotional and as Gordon Gecko warned Bud Fox: "Never get emotional about stocks."
What set me off was the capcod3's post about comments voiced by AMRI's CFO. The CFO telling capcod3 that he didn't know why the stock was falling because everything is fine and dandy - for me, that is a Big Red Flag on a Cold War Era May Day Parade.
The broker reports that came out after the last announcement collectively represent the smoking gun. Either the CFO displayed a marked lack of candor or he does not comprehend the impact of those communiques. Neither choice is not pretty.
I'm guessing it's choice #1, which is alarming. It brings to mind all those secretive people who damaged or brought down large companies as they covered their tracks: Nick Leason, Peter Young, John Ho Park, Joe Jett. Let's not forget Tyco, Enron, WorldCom, and, my favorite, Bre-X Minerals. I seem to remember that as their crisis peaked, Bre-X's chief geologist "fell" out of a helicopter.
It's those sneaky poker-faced fibbers, who lull their unsuspecting colleagues into a state of carte blanche trust, that cause serious damage.
I might be ranting here. I might be getting carried away but I have some justification.
I don't blame the angry employees who post to this group. Their jobs, along with many other jobs, are increasingly outsourced to India. I've heard that Indian science and engineering schools are top notch. So I'm optimistic about Albany Molecular's ongoing expansion in India, R&D expansion in particular.
While I'm ignorant about the science, the business seems understandable. Contract R&D for pharmaceutical companies with a few internal R&D programs. The timeline of pharmaceutical R&D seems to confuse people. Many posters to this group have complained about management's inabilty to make productive use of the Allegra royalties. Yet Albany Molecular is still a rather young company.
The aging of society isn't limited to North America. The opportunities for contract R&D for pharmaceutical companies is endless. As economies grow around the world, the opportunities for Albany Molecular multiply. The Allegra scare has refocused management. I think there's lots to be optimistic about.
D'Ambra made his fortune with his cut of the Allegra royalties. The future for Albany Molecular is international expansion. The American expansion attempts backfired, so there is good reason for cautious optimism. My stake in the game is small enough that a blowup won't kill my portfolio.
I'm not a present or former employee, just another individual investor/country boy trying make money.
I'm not a day trader either. I WILL churn-and-burn if the need arises and I will also buy-and-hold when the situation is right.
One thing to consider when you read the posts written by most employees at most companies: unless they work in financial services, there's a good chance that they don't understand the market. They have their individual specialties. As a result, they try to digest internal communications and try to make sense of the market. It's understandable that they can�t see the forest for the trees.
Your hope about AMRI isn't "ignorant." Everyone has a view in the market: one party sells as another party buys. This stock isn't completely a lost cause.
Peter Lynch once wrote that we should invest based on things that we know best. If someone likes Mexican food and you like a Mexican chain restaurant, he said you should think about doing your homework on that stock. You love upstate New York and the pharmaceutical industry so you pulled the trigger.
As you said, AMRI is a turnaround story. Two important questions are: How long will that take? Are there better stocks to buy instead? Your personal comfort level and risk tolerance will dictate your answers to those questions.
Intel, AMD and Apple all delivered positive news to the market today and their shares are responding. Also, Intel seems to be a rising tide lifting many high tech boats. These stocks are worthy trading. Still, following/investing/trading individual stocks can be labor intensive and stressful.
Back to your analysis. You feel the program with Bristol-Myers Squibb has potential. Excellent point. It may have fabulous potential, but these things take time. A long time. You wrote that you bought some shares at $14 and some at $10. I'm guessing your average cost was about $12, maybe lower depending upon how much you bought.
If the stock cracks $17 again within the next 18 months, think about taking profits. Then wait to see if the Bristol-Myers Squibb program doesn't fade into obscurity. It took a long time between the announcement of the deal and the announcement of the first baby step of progress.
As a concept, the overseas expansion is a good idea. Let's wait and see how the company manages those operations. Among other things, management does not have a good track for acquisitions. You have to hope that management is up to the task.
Another great, informative post from Stock Hunter. Many former/current Albany Molecular employees post to this group without being so informative. Thanks again Stock Hunter.
I'm holding on to this stock, what few shares I have, simply because I love upstate New York and I love the pharmaceutical industry.
There is upside to this stock. There are the Bristol Myers neuro compounds and the international expansions. The Indian expansions in particular are rather interesting. This stock seems to be a turnaround play and we're on the way up from the bottom. At least that's my ignorant hope.
Thanks for your reply. This is an enjoyable dialog.
First, don't worry. Like I said before, we are all trying to make money. I'm not Cramer. I'm a son of a sod buster.
Second, your insightful comments would apply to most typical small cap biotech or pharma stocks, which trade on hopes and fears. Most but not all.
AMRI doesn't fit into that category. They are a services company. Thus, it trades on execution.
In many respects, AMRI is a "phoenix situation" - trying to rise from the ashes of unprofitability and failed acquisitions. Minus Allegra, AMRI has been losing money for years and they are trying to fix that. Investors are focusing on that and it appears they were disappointed with the last announcement.
AMRI is trading on its ability to convince investors that it's improving profitability in significant way.
Regarding the number of drugs AMRI has under development, you have to separate customers' drugs and AMRI's drugs. It's nice that their customers have x number of drugs in phase 3, but that doesn't represent as much profit potential as their own drugs.
It's like money management firms. Money managers receive a fee for their services. They get more bang for their buck if they manage their own money as opposed to receiving fees for other peoples' managing money.
In the same way, AMRI's service fees are nice and growing, but they need to make significant profits to attract new investors.
On the other hand, AMRI's own pipeline is almost nil. Investors should not buy this stock because of its pipeline. I think management should sell this non-business, if they could find anyone would be willing be buy it.
Which brings us back to the issue of their last announcement. Their results plus what they said (or failed to say) led to a state of underwhelment on the part of the brokers. Somehow, they dropped the ball. The CFO expressing bewilderment (genuine or contrived) doesn't boost my confidence and leads me to further discount the stock.
Did you actually think the CFO would actually provide you with a straight answer?
Mr. Fastow, is everything okay with Enron?
Would the CFO look you straight in the eye and say:
"Well, to tell you the truth, I screwed up. I (fill in the blank)."
"We screwed up. We did/didn't (fill in the blank)."
Not in this life time.
It's highly unlikely your CFO would ever admit to a person or company failure because he would be worried about the impact on morale or his career, among other things.
There are three basic types of CFOs:
First, industry specialists who spend their entire careers in their area of specialty, like High Tech, Capital Goods, Pharmaceutical.
Second, ultra slick M&A oriented guys who cut numerous deals. These are often ex-Wall Streeters and they run hot and cold. When they hit a losing streak, they get bounced. Sometimes they get bored because the pay isn't as sweet as Wall Street and they pine for their days of all deals all the time.
Third, highly disciplined bean counters devoid of all creativity. These guys are robots who plod along. Once in a while, they will bend the rules of accounting to advance their career. Most of the time they can be counted on the be dull.
NONE of these types would give you a straight answer.
If you are telling the truth and you bought the stock after your conversation, that might not have been the smartest of moves. The vast majority of listed companies in the US of A have ESOP programs. Most ESOP programs either buy shares at a discount or match shares or both.
Today, the stock appears to be up on a Dead Cat Bounce (as in, "Even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it far enough").