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Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

  • stk_hnter stk_hnter Nov 9, 2007 5:13 PM Flag

    Wipe Out!

    Another quarter, another disappointment.

    For the second quarter in a row, AMRI released its results which prompted major investors to Sell! Sell! Sell! The market has spoken. As I said the last time around: something is rotten in Denmark and the pros can smell it.

    Ignore the fact that results looked great versus the previous year's quarter. Last year's third quarter was terrible, so it's no big deal that results looked good by comparison. Earnings Per Share missed the market's consensus estimate and I'm sure there were other disappointments beyond that one aspect of their results. My drinking buddy is way over-due in returning my call, but he appears to be swamped.

    Any time a company misses market expectations and a high-volume sell-off occurs, it means that the company has either been ignoring the market or they don't know how to talk to the market. Or perhaps I watch too much CNBC.

    This leads me to a comment posted on this board.

    knowtain wrote:

    "Albany Molecular is so not the Red Sox of industry! Perhaps the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would be a fitting analogy for Albany Molecular."

    Actually, I think that "Buddy Ryan" is a much more fitting analogy. Buddy Ryan was a superb Defensive Coordinator who helped coach the Bears to a great Super Bowl victory (glad that was the Pats and not the Broncos). However, when Buddy became a head coach, he was clearly over his head and unfit for that job.

    I'm sure the CEO at AMRI was a fantastic chemist and that the CFO was a whiz kid among bean counters or Wall Street M&A specialists. But in this capacity these officers are Buddy Ryans. They appear to be out of their element and not up to the task. They probably have no business working at these positions for a listed company in the United States or any other major industrialized nation.

    That being said, my opinion is practically meaningless. That and $350 will get you very good seats at the next Broncos home game (MNF vs Titans). The market has voiced its opinion and money has flowed out.

    In the end, this isn't issue to be dissected by an amateur such as myself. The Board of Directors should be looking long and hard at these people. It might be time for a change in the coaching staff. This twosome can then work on their golf games, go skiing or go back to doing whatever they were doing before. Perhaps there's a place for them in China.

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    • With or without lead and child labor?

    • I think stock hunter may be a bit too negative towards management. The company survived the Allegra generics, is slowly growing profits, has interesting international expansion, has potentially lucrative ongoing R&D projects, and there's the Bristol Myers neuro compounds. A big part of recent price decline is the overly bearish stock market.

      Home equity is disappearing and oil nears $100 a barrel. So Albany Molecular gets severely punished for earnings that didn't grow as much as expected. Probably a good time to start buying stocks.

      • 1 Reply to knowtain
      • knowtain,

        With all due respect, I have to disagree with you on this point. I realize that the practice of stock picking involves art, science and some luck. That being said, I'll stand by my assessment and assignation of the Buddy Ryan label.

        A substantial sell-off, in terms of price and volume, occurred after AMRI's negative earnings surprise. This went beyond merely being pulled down by the market or other macroeconomic forces. The trading volume was relatively large within the context of AMRI's historical trading activities.

        Perhaps the China reference was slightly unfair . . . to the Chinese. Perhaps there's a place for them in Indonesia.

        Go Broncos,
        Stock Hunter

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