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Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

  • stk_hnter stk_hnter Dec 19, 2009 2:55 PM Flag

    Trade It Don't Buy It - Redux

    Long time no post. Given market conditions, it seemed irrelevant. Everything was falling & needed to focus on my portfolio. Also, I got cut-off: my fund manager drinking buddy will no longer discuss AMRI. Absolutely refuses. Before that, he did me a solid favor prior to cutting me off earlier this year.

    My drinking buddy has a classmate from B-School who follows drug companies at another fund management firm. My Drinking Buddy's Classmate (MDBC) attended an investor conference in San Francisco last January and asked around.

    Apparently, while drinking in the hotel bar, when MDBC mentioned AMRI, some investors rolled their eyes. Consensus: AMRI is typical of start-ups in the industry because the CEO/founder is scientifically brilliant/talented, had enough vision to see an un-met need in the marketplace and was able to launch the company. However, the CEO/founder lacks the managerial skills to take it to the next level & he really/truly doesn't understand how Wall Street really works.

    The CEO has a reputation for exuding arrogance and becoming visibly irritated when he doesn't like investor questions. The CFO touts himself as independent but is seen as exactly the opposite. AMRI looks good on paper and their story sounds good. Despite that, management lacks the skill to succeed, the business model has too many vulnerability points, or both.

    The deficiencies of the CEO/CFO would be acceptable if the company was doing well, various investors apparently said. They felt it was symbolic of the problems of the company as a whole. AMRI, they said, went public when the entire market went up. The stock price achieved stratospheric heights that it didn't deserve (which further fueled the CEO's delusions) and will never reach again.

    My drinking buddy and MDBC concluded that this is, at best, a trading stock. AMRI might benefit as the economy recovers, but it will continue to stumble. Every quarter management will provide reasons for not hitting targets. The sun got in their eyes, they need to once again re-structure their operations in East Boondocks, etc.

    My mantra: trade it don't buy it. Bet with your head & not with your heart - which is why I try to avoid betting on The Broncos.

 
AMRI
19.79-0.15(-0.75%)9:40 AMEDT