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Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

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  • amrithebest amrithebest May 3, 2010 10:09 PM Flag

    Excelsyn

    Clearly you asked an excellent question. However, why you have 6 ratings and all 5 stars shows the mentally on this board – they all appear to be shorts. Yes profit has been less than desired for the past 10 years. In part this has been due to adaptations that occurred in the industry and secondly, the building of a sustainable business. Dr. D’Ambra has acquired a number of strategic pieces that are needed to build a Big Pharma business. Entremed was used to build up the pipeline in several therapeutic areas (including unmet medical need areas!) and both AMRI UK and the Rensselaer manufacturing facilities are key to the long term success of the company. In the intervening years, contract manufacturing will provide the revenue to sustain the transformation into a Big Pharma company. Just my 2 cents.

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    • "Clearly you asked an excellent question. However, why you have 6 ratings and all 5 stars shows the mentally on this board – they all appear to be shorts." 3 May, 2010, amrithebest

      * At the time, gsrefiner's post had 6 ratings, but there is no way for any of us to tell if every single rating is 5 stars. No way.

      * You still seem to lack an understanding of the market and how this forum works. First, it's extremely expensive and extremely risky to short. I doubt if very many (if any) participants in this forum have the resources to significantly short AMRI or any stock. Second, nothing that anyone writes here will have any impact on AMRI's stock price. I could be either the most positive or the most negative poster here - my posts will have zero impact. Zero!!! Third, it's business, it's not personal. For example, if I were to say that the St Louis Rams had the worst record in the 2009 NFL, it wouldn't be personal. We could argue over whether the Lions or the Rams were the absolute worst team in 2009 and that would not be personal.

      On a side note, in some of my recent posts, I inferred that AMRI would be a bargain if the stock were pulled down by the market. Therefore, AMRI might have been a good stock to buy on May 7. At current levels, below $7.50, AMRI might be a buy on a Dead Cat Bounce angle.

    • I was right with 2 cents - clearly the market is reacting today to the unexpected profit.

      • 1 Reply to amrithebest
      • "I was right with 2 cents - clearly the market is reacting today to the unexpected profit." 7 May, 2010, 12:20 pm, amrithebest

        Let's test the validity of this comment by running through the time line.

        * May 5 7am: AMRI reports - excluding the acquisition of Excelsyn, net income on an adjusted basis for first quarter of 2010 $0.6 million, or $0.02 per diluted share.

        * May 5 4pm: AMRI close $7.90 -$0.13

        * May 6, market meltdown, 4pm: AMRI close $7.22 -$0.68

        * May 7, market rebound, 4pm: AMRI close $7.32 +$0.10

        * May 7: amrithebest concludes that, after AMRI dropped when earnings were the released, investors waited more than one full day before "reacting" to "unexpected profit."

        * May 14: I see zero connection. Your conclusion is invalid. If AMRI were to rally for 12 of the of the 15 trading days after earnings release, then I would see evidence of a connection. Questions - What was prerelease consensus? Do you have any numbers or anything tangible, other than a wing and a prayer, to back-up your conclusion?

 
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