W 25 mm in cash the mkt giving little value to zybrestat franchise here.....since neither Roche or oxgn know anything more than PFs improvement of 32 percent (since natl cancer institute and gig have embargoed the data)...based on superior to avastin monotherapy and ecyt 1bb mkt cap PFs of 25 percent, I would just buy them....... However, if they wait to see the flop and by some chance their is an improvement in o/s that comes out then the price tag goes up huge (not sure we get a conclusive o/s w only 107 patients w late stage deadly ovarian) ......but you could buy out oxgn as a combo therapy to avastin and/or packlitaxol and protect your platform (think zuckerberg protecting fb by buying what's app or snap chat)u get a better mousetrap and give yourself free call option on o/simprovement.....sub 100 million u buy oxgn for let's say 200 million and do for zybrestat what appx and then celg did for paclitaxol or what Roche/DNA did for avastin and try it in all cancers w/better know how and resources.....the next couple weeks I expect the temperature to rise on partnering or buyout.....maybe we get lucky ahead of a weekend coming......glta
Stocktraderj, I think another point which the market is overlooking is that if Overall Survival is enhanced in the combination then it could be inferred that it's the result of the Zybrestat addition or it may be the "synergistic effect" of both drugs working in combination. For example, either drug given alone may not enhance overall survival but together they do, so the effect may be more that additive. In other words the addition of a vascular disrupting agent may "potentiate" the effect of an EGFR inhibitor. Because this would remain a possibility until proven otherwise Roche/DNA would have no choice but to buy us out or at the least partner in a major way to protect their Avastin franchise, especially when it goes off patent.
This whole o/s thing is a bit funny to me......this is a fuerstein insert from a bearish guy he speaks w/ leading him by the nose.....same guy wrote about this issue on ecyt right before ema granted conditional approval......when I talked w/ the company they were pretty straight up that o/a was NOT the primary endpoint of this trial....Adam fuerstein and his chorines don't get to decide what the primary end points/considerations should be.....primary was met, o/a will be tough to extract w only 107 patients in a high mortality subset like late stage ovarian.....it may be imp for FDA but it is clearly NOT the dependent variable for ema(why doesn't fuerstein and his bear speak to the value of zybrestat in ema w no o/s benefit?)....after all I think Roche/DNA/avastin have done pretty well starting w Europe/ovarian and off label approach......I'm so sick of these biotech knowitalls who always short stocks post pos news and drive down pps thereby raising the costs for cos who need additional capital.....really are scummy people that do that......anyway, fuerstein and his short in ecyt got what they deserved for poor understanding of the situation (had they bothered to notice avastin approved in eu w no o/s benefit but strong PFs they would have understood why ecyt and oxgn will go through based on strong PFs)
I think we're overlooking the fact they will file for ATC in Europe by end of year, early 2015 so we should be looking at discounted cash flows here, making this $200 million cap even without Ovarian. As Cliffy rudely pointed out several times we probably already have enough data for an Ovarian indication in the EU with Phase II Progression Free Survival data but Overall Survival will bump it's utility way, way higher in every part of the World making Zybrestat the "GOLD STANDARD" adjunct therapy for Ovarian, essentially a multi billion dollar drug, so this data is extremely important (not for approval Cliffy) but for value enhancement.
Put on your big girl panties rooty. It puts many people in a foul mood sorting through 3,000 rah rah posts.. not to mention Ali Babba and the 40 liars and thieves. And you're forgetting. I caught you posting on both sides of this. So rude? Pfffft. This whole proposition of trying for years to stall a very good med from development.. is what? Gentlemanly gamesmanship? Bull $h@t.
I know exactly what it means. I made the point.. and I also brought the ATC cash flow component into the discussion. Like I said: that alone should be worth $300M. Why? Because the Z in ATC will be good for ~$65,000+ per for 800-1,000 of those people in the lower age range at peak in the EU.. imo.
let's flip it; what if oxgn is willing to wait for the flop? is it double blinder? any anecdotal evidence that o/s might show statistical significance?
also, you're 200mm buyout is 10, which is where i think the company belongs right now;
we will get good preclinical news from the abstracts at aacr which will add heat to the fire; more positive news in more indications showing a wide range of success in different indications using the platform; i noted one of the abstracts is for prostate, couldn't figure out the other 2
Sentiment: Strong Buy