1) We have a loss of cca. 85B banking assets from a total of 927B. Since ING DIrect's ROA, ROE and cost ratio is similar the ING bank total, this is clearly a loss of 85B/927B=9.1% from the banking business. 2) We lost a 269m underlying earnings power from a total of 1695m in banking, which is 15%. This numbers are from 2010Y annual report.
3)So, we probably lost somewhere between 9% and 15% of the banking business, depending how you see it, for 9.0B selling price
4)Now, if $9B is 9% or 15% of the value of ING, then the total ING is valued in this transaction to: $9/0.09=100B, or 9B/0.15=60B, which means total ING is valued at present $60-100B, or with 3.78B shares $15-$26/share.
5)Currently we are at $12/share, se the stock market is undervaluing ING compared to this transaction 25-100%.
If you sell something for 25%-100% more than it is valued at NYSE, it might be considered a good deal. or is it?
Well, let' take a look at it from another wievpoint.
1)Include into the calculations the ING Insurance business. Insurance total Assets are 325B, from ING total assets of 1250B, this is 26%.
Its share from Equity total of 46B is 20B, this is 43%.
Insurance underlying result is 461m from the total ING undarlying result of 2150m, this is 21%.
2) Take an average of the above numbers, and you get to the conclusion that ING Insurance Business is cca. 30% of the total value of ING.
3)If ING Direct is worth $9B today, and it is cca. (9%, 15% average) 13% of ING total value, then a 30% share of ING should be valued at cca. $21B. So, by the present market transaction ING Insurance should be valued at cca. 21B.
4)Now, add to ING banking Busines value (see previous post) of cca. $80B (since it is valued between $60 and $100B) the Insurance Business value of cca. $20B, you get a total ING value of $100B today.
5) And you get for ING Direct only $9B? Looks like a bad deal. Or is it?
1) If the current Stockmarket valuation of ING is right, then selling ING Direct for $9B was a reasonabley good deal, cca. 25% above the stockmarket value.
2) If the price of $9B was right for ING Direct in this transaction (and the stockmarket valuation is wrong), and you calculate ING Total value from this, then you must conclude selling for $9B was a definitely bad deal. ING sold its crown jewel for cca. $4B less than it should have.