Hi tek, 1)If you dont find any explanation for extrem behavior, you should accept what Sherlock Holmes said:-) "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
In ING's case, we investors wonder just like you, on the reasons, of this controversy: -If all public information on ING's website is true and valid representation of the facts about the company, -And the investment methodology called value investing defined by B.Graham and. W.Buffet is correct and remained valid, as it was for 80 years, -why is ING's price so low ?
If the above two statement is correct, then you have nothing else, however improbable,that
"ING is massively mispriced by all metrics, discounted from its intrinsic value (my Graham Number estimate is $25) by cca. 70%, now selling at 30% of its value.
2)I think this extrem mispricing comes from the following main factors: -ING stock is extremly volatile. It has 3 times volatility of S&P index, just like a daytraders stock. I could not find any major bank stock with similar volatility. Bank indexes dropped in 4 months by 25-30%. ING with 3times volatility dropped 50%. So you can evaluate this fact like "ING hold up very well" considering volatility.
-ING is the target of index arbitrageurs, high-freq. trader techniques, hedgefunds, and all this on both sides of the Atlantic.
-Currently banks in general are an extremly disfavored business. The world politicians and layman all blame banks for the problems they face now. Why? Because the consequences of their former bad decisions came up first in the financial infrastructure. Bank are here to blame in this decade, just as .... in 30's, .... in 70's, etc., in periods of longer secular bear markets. (for ... insert Hitler, Stalin, Hrustchov, reds, communists, Carter, iranians, terrorists, vietkong, hippies, etc. as you like).
-There is an added Greek crisis in euroland, and it is not solveable like the knot of Gordius, at moments-notice. EU proceeds slowly and carefully, determined to save the euro, and do not want to make permanent damage or moral hazard anywhere. But this approach takes time. So the media and hedgefunds has ample time to scare people to death, and out of their positions.
3) Still, shortterm, I see some signals of a turnaround:
-I watch the Money Flow Index, which attempts to measure the strength of money flowing in and out of a security. It is closely related to the Relative Strength Index (RSI); however, the Money Flow Index also accounts for volume action. I see clear divergence/failure swings between the indicator and the price action. MFI weekly chart turned up last week. This divergence should signal: the bottom is in.
-ING's weekly stohastics also bottomed last week, at 2.9 level (stohastic value oscillates between 0 and 100), which is the alltime low ING record. Yes, never, not even at the bottom of 2008-9 crisis, fall the stohastic this low (its bottom was 5.5 !).