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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

  • sir_stock_sage sir_stock_sage Feb 21, 2013 5:38 PM Flag

    Let's Be Real

    As I review the SFY report, I would offer the following. I believe these are really nice people..certainly fun at a Sunday pig roast. That said, they obviously have no idea how to run a railroad (er E&P company). How many quarters in a row have they given guidance, missed it, reported #$%$ numbers, talked it down further during their call, and said everything is great. It's like a restaurant saying they have the greatest menu, but the chef can't crack an egg. They have curtailed their drilling, in an environment where Eagle Ford drilling market is overloaded with excess capacity. They say we have huge upside potential, yet our delivery is rock bottom. I used to believe in the comapny when they were in the $30's, now at $13 I wouldn't touch it. I think there will be all you can hanle at $8-10 before long

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    • Can't argue with some of your points. SFY has certainly underperformed the last year. But, ALL E&P companies go through ups & downs. Generally, E&P companies are influenced by oil & gas price super-cycles as well as company specific mini-cycles of execution. The key, IMO, is to get in at/near the bottom of a oil/gas super-cycle with companies that are generally successful in execution (with strong assets).

      SFY was overweight gas a few years ago and got caught up in a big down super-cycle in NG (which, I believe, bottomed last spring). In addition, they hit some company specific bumps in the last few quarters - slow transition from gas to oil weighted production, pad drilling problems in eagle ford, hurricane shuttin in south LA production, and the recent watering out of wells in Lake Washington. Some of this within their control, some not.

      Take a look at SFY's history - they have been around the block a few times (through many cycles). Going back to 1995, they have had 4 major up/down cycles ranging from just below $10 to over $40.

      I believe they do know how to run an E&P company and are probably near the low of another cycle. Could they still go down? Sure - there is always that risk with companies. But, I think the odds are they right the ship and participate in the next up super-cycle. I'd rather like it at $13 and start not liking it at $30. JMHO.

    • Have to continue because I'm still laughing. Talking about the Lake Washington, going to be the biggest thing since sliced bread some time in furture.. but don't think it's coming anytime soon. In the long run, we'll all be rich, but in the short term we might not.

 
SFY
11.35+0.10(+0.89%)Aug 29 4:01 PMEDT

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