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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

  • rajoilprasad rajoilprasad Aug 13, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    this stock is extreeeemly cheap

    earnings yield is 64.59%; that means if they stop drilling you get your money back in 1.3 years and then play with banks money

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    • Huge possibility, it is going to be well over $35 until end of 3rd Q. Good luck to all

    • ...and getting cheaper as the market goes up!

    • Here is my take. SFY has operating cash flow that is about 19% current debt plus market capital. Most exploration firms are in the 10-15% range. There is no doubt that SFY's market capital is undervalued. To get to 15%, SFY's market cap would need to be $2.15B, or about $21 per share. In other words, SFY's operating cash flow is not valued nearly as much as one would expect. The big negative for SFY, however, is that it hasn't, as of yet, shown the ability to increase operating cash flow on any consistent basis. Hopefully that will change.

      • 2 Replies to mjones2702
      • I believe the reason SFY is not liked by the street currently (i.e. undervalued) is the combination of current liquidity/debt combined with it primarily having Natural Gas reserves. NG has been trending lower this summer due to large builds closing the gap on inventory deficeits. If NG pricing turns around and can be sustained in the high 4's to mid 5's, the stock price should do well.

      • I get what you are trying to say but you have your terminology wrong. To get to a $2.15 market cap, the stock price would have to be $49, $2.15/43.85 shares outstanding. An enterprise value of $2.15 would get a $23 stock price, assuming the $125 million pay down of debt received from the joint venture.
        SFY is cheap by all metrics whether it be book value, price to sales, cash flow, etc.

    • Would love to see the numbers behind your post, can you reply with a breakdown?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to mr_brightside_xy
      • Here is the calculation:

        Last 4 qtr income before taxes including $73.911 non recurring charge is $50.825 MM$
        Add Depreciation (last 4 qtr) of $272.083 then total cash flow for last 4 qtr is $322.908 MM$. Devide it by 43.85 MM shares and u get cash flow/sh = $7.36. If you bought it today at $11.31/sh; it will take you 1.54 years to get your investment of $11.31 back and then you pay with OPM (other peaple's money)

      • I've experienced this movie before with small low float and asset underalued E&P. The shares just keep bouncing up and down betwwen the 2 sigma Bollinger bands unitl there is an external
        market force that wants to buy reserves on the exchange vs in the field. IMHO the low float and low price currently combine to make this a very good trading vehicle for traders who dont care about sustained moves in either direction, just keep trimming small gains from being able to move the stock in each direction. I agree with all the metrics that say it is substantially undervalued but
        that means litttle to a trader "Painting the tape" to move the shares a small increment in one direction or the other. We need a force that exceeds the ability of these small increments to move the price with relatively small amounts of money.

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