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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

  • peachpitter peachpitter Jun 7, 2000 3:35 PM Flag

    Noon news just reported that...

    "Presidential candidate Al Gore and Energy
    Secretary Bill Richardson will speak at the Washington
    State Democratic Convention this summer. Richardson is
    prominently mentioned as a vice-presidential
    candidate."

    Would seem that the choice has been made by Mr. Gore.
    Think we will get some spin doctoring out of Energy to
    forestall any embarrassment to the ticket? Duh!!!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • NG looking toppy how could that be, impossible,
      go to your room, Maxwell says, "NG to the
      moon".....

      Look at the chart..

      78 the injection number a
      little higher than market participants were hoping for
      as demonstrated by the TANK in NG prices.
      Fortunately, so far, SFY and other NG issues didn't seem to
      notice. Watch out if she break's further. This item has
      to steady up. Next thing we'll hear is that it is
      snowing in New York in June....or that temperatures are
      unseasonably cool. Plus $4 seems hard to hold....78 on the
      injection numbers????? Tomorrow we'll hear how "unfriendly"
      that number
      was.

      http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=NGN0&data=A&date=060600&jav=adv&vol=Y&
      evnt=adv&grid=Y&ov1=66&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

      • 2 Replies to zebra887
      • 78 was more than the high side
        most traders
        had figured on seeing.
        Highside was supposed to be
        75.

        87 has been the last 5 year average.
        It was 91
        last year same week.

        We closed at like around
        $3.95
        for July and below $4.00.
        Yes, this is unexpected,
        and something to watch.

        I think we'll be in a
        trading range
        between maybe $3.85 and $4.25 until

        we see some hot weeks and storage
        back down less
        than 50 bcf.

        Don't believe anyone is going to
        sell
        this down below $3.80 which is a downside pivot, but
        we'll see.

        Am also hearing that its not all just

        cool weather and some increasing gas supplies that
        allowed us to get to 78
        today. Some industries which
        are traditionally huge demand are converting-- if
        they can to resid,
        and some Ammonia plants have
        shut down production because of their economics--that
        may be 600 mmcfpd
        on its own. So there is a real
        industrial impact being felt and
        some interruptible or
        economically
        sensitive customers are already in
        turmoil.


        Believe we'll work back up to $4.25
        and $4.50 range
        over the next month
        but maybe not without some
        tests on the $3.80 threshold---there cash
        is
        supporting it for next day delivery, and that has not
        changed.

        North American Supply is down 4 BCFD
        and power
        demand is incrementally
        1.5 bcfd year to year growth
        projected each year forward.
        So, if shutting down some
        industrials
        puts a little more gas in the cavern
        on a ONE TIME
        BASIS, there is no
        more to give in that area after
        this.

        July 4th I expect to be above $4.00
        just because
        capitalism is what
        America is about and people will want
        to keep cool while they light firecrackers.

        I
        still expecting natural gas supply
        to be tight and
        storage to be lacking

        Anyway, I hardly expect
        Swift or any
        other NG producer to suffer
        mightly
        at $3.50/mmbtu, and that might actually be
        politically more expedient anyway--We'll see.

        Ask
        Taylor what Swift's earnings
        are at $3.50......then
        redo all
        my conversions and add that to
        a
        stock price based on $3.50 gas.
        Watch the commodity
        but understand
        it is going to be extremely
        volatile.
        Much more volatile on an hourly
        and daily basis
        than the securities.
        Supply imbalance is now
        magnifying normal volatility up and down as they should.


        Hang 10, keep the AC on,
        and jets on
        idle.

        Truth

      • A 78 only means that they are falling behind at a
        slower rate. They are still falling behind.

        You
        didn't take advantage of all the features of the site.
        Click on "Advanced Opinion." Here's the
        result:

        *Short Term Indicators Average: 40% - Buy
        *Medium
        Term Indicators Average: 75% - Buy
        *Long Term
        Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
        *Overall Average: 72% -
        Buy

    • If the Bush camp can't deliver the TRUTH about these two short hitters, then we probably deserve what we get --- Screwed!!!

 
SFY
11.74+0.15(+1.29%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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