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YPF S.A. Message Board

  • czentay czentay Mar 24, 2011 11:34 AM Flag

    Overview of YPF

    Can someone give a quick (and intelligent) overview of YPF? It seems difficult to get information on YPF.

    Why is Repsol selling if there is such a big find? Does Repsol know something we don't, or is this stock very undervalued?

    I lived in Argentina for 3 years, and a lot of these companies (e.g. IRSA) are very corrupt and take money under the table. I wouldn't trust them at all. So you need to put a big discount on any Argentine company. But it seems at these levels, with the new discovery, that YPF could be a buy.

    Has anyone followed this stock for a while and can give a quick overview? Thinking of buying a lot here under $42! Thank you!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • better hurry, won't under 42 for long.

    • ex dividend April 21 the six months dividend. Estimated $1.60 but not yet declared.

    • IPO flippers almost all out. Selling down to small lots. Sustained rise will start soon. Stock is too cheap to stay here for long and dividend declaration will be soon.

    • This was an IPO. While it traded somewhat, only 1.3% of the stock was in public hands. Repsol owned 81.5%. Peterson bought their shares from Repsol for USD$39 in 2008 when oil prices were low. The gas discovery took place in Nov. 2010--two years later. YPF has 1 billion barrels of proved BOE worth $30 billion. Try to find another major integrated selling below the value of its reserves. All the downstream is free-1700 gas stations, refineries, gathering systems as well is all unproved, acreage, and the latest gas find.

      The company states they will pay out 90% of a.t. income. The dividend has no withholding tax in Argentina. While the April dividend has not been set, I believe it could be $1.80 as they are earning $4/shr and that would be a 90% payout. That means the stock is yielding close to 9%. This offering creates liquidity with 9% of the company now trading publicly--mostly in the U.S. No analyst has ever written on YPF. That will change very soon.

      This is a perfect storm.

      • 3 Replies to sage533
      • Thanks for the info. My broker lists a news report not on Yahoo yet:

        "Repsol Says Extraordinary Income May Lead To Higher Dividend

        9:10 AM ET 4/15/11 | Dow Jones
        MADRID (EFE Dow Jones)--Spain's oil major Repsol YPF SA (REP.MC) Friday said it may use extraordinary income due to the sale of part of its Brazilian and Argentine operations to distribute a higher dividend, intensify oil exploration and improve its debt ratios."

        The article goes on to say that Repsol intends to reduce its stake in YPF to 51%.

      • BTW Since YPF is still 90% privately held, the private holders will want the dividend. Note that on 11/8/2010 Repsol sold 15MM shares at $42.50 to private investors--a good indication that we are on the right track.

        When the analyst reports come out they will value YPF at $70-80/shr.

      • Upstream Operations

        • We operate more than 70 oil and gas fields in Argentina, accounting for approximately 39% of the country’s total production of crude oil, excluding natural gas liquids, and approximately 39% of its total natural gas production, including natural gas liquids, in 2009, according to information provided by the Argentine Secretariat of Energy.

        • We had proved reserves, as estimated as of December 31, 2010, of approximately 531 mmbbl of oil and approximately 2,533 bcf of gas, representing aggregate reserves of approximately 982 mmboe.

        • In 2010, we produced approximately 107 mmbbl of oil (293 mbbl/d), including condensate and natural gas liquids, and approximately 491 bcf of gas (1,346 mmcf/d).

        Downstream Operations

        • We are Argentina’s leading refiner with operations conducted at three wholly-owned refineries with combined annual refining capacity of approximately 116 mmbbl (319.5 mbbl/d). We also have a 50% interest in Refinería del Norte, S.A. (“Refinor”), an entity jointly controlled with and operated by Petrobras Energía S.A., which has a refining capacity of 26.1 mbbl/d.

        • Our retail distribution network for automotive petroleum products as of December 31, 2010 consisted of 1,622 YPF-branded service stations, and we estimate we held approximately 31% of all gasoline service stations in Argentina.




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        Table of Contents

        • We are one of the leading petrochemical producers in Argentina and in the Southern Cone of Latin America, with operations conducted through our Ensenada and Plaza Huincul sites. In addition, Profertil S.A. (“Profertil”), a company that we jointly control with Agrium Holdco Spain S.L. (“Agrium”), is one of the leading producers of urea in the Southern Cone.

    • repsol owns something like 75% of ypf.to put into perspective they sold 3.3% of their shares so diversification may be in play. and the argentine govt not been so friendly in the past. there is a mad shale rush into argentina with huge untapped potential. it is unclear to me from prospectus how much ypf land it controls, but it does look considerable on the map.
      this probably will always trade at a discount because repsol owns so much of the shares, smaller float and it is based in argentina, but reserve base growth could be huge imo.

 
YPF
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