From now on all oil companies in Argentina are become completely independent from government so that government can not pressure to decrease oil and gas price, and can not pressure to adjust company policy. GREAT buy at this price
Dude, you are smoking something. Looks like it must some good stuff.
I lived in Argentina 5 years. I've been investing for 15. I'm 33.
Let me tell you, your logic is wrong. The pressure will continue, the Government just forced them last week or the one before to lower the price they charge bus companies for diesel! That goes hand in hand with the fact they will stop subsidizing the bus fare (currently the fare is subsidized about 75%. Standard bus fare inside downtown is 1 peso 25 cents, or $.29, whereas the bus companies say it should be around 4 pesos or $.92. As they drop the subsidies, they will continue to pressure YPF and other companies to lower their prices.
Now, whether they will win remains to be seen, but if they don't then nationalization is a high risk item on the plate. Why did the President of Repsol, with 56% ownership in YPF, land in Argentina today? Yes, it is a huge sign.
Btw, I apologize for the multiple posts. I was having the oddest problem today where I kept getting a 999 error from yahoo. That is the first I've ever seen it. It ended up that I had written "clarin" followed by a period followed by "com", and that was causing the problem. I split my post multiples, trying to see what would actually post, until I spotted the problem...
You know, Argentina has already announced that basically no company in the country can remit dividends. Several banks had already announced dividends. There was an article yesterday in Clarin stating that The Bank of Patagonia had already announced 306 Million pesos in dividends, most of which would go to the majoriy owner in Brazil, and the Government actually halted their stock for a few hours and then the net effect is that the dividend payment won't be happening this quarter, and who knows when it will. The Government effected this by raising the reserve requirement for banks.
You guys think they will pay top dollar, or a reasonable amount, for nationalization? I doubt it. They may throw some money to shareholders, but Argentina is not unlike a tiger backed into a corner right now. Has everyone already forgotten what they did just 3 years back, when they confiscated all retirement pension fund accounts (i.e. imagine the U.S. taking over your pension fund and promising to pay you from it) in the name of "security". They claimed it would be safer for retirees, since the Government would pay them out later instead of them having their money in the markets, a bold-faced lie while taking all of the cash.
3 years later, and it may be time for another sovereign manuevar to shore up the balance sheet. YPF would make sense. if I was a shareholder - or the President of Repsol - I would be scared :)