That's the problem; Argentina doesn't have outside investors like Brazil, India, etc. becuase it doesn't pay its bills...It only knows how to default. In spite of having money in the National Bank it still hasn't paid the bondholders it ripped off back in 2001. There aren't any outside investors of any significance. Check the record if you don't believe me.
well, robert (roberto?) i've been thinking about the american brand of corruption for the last year or two quite a lot. then the poop hit the fan in europe and i started reading about the forms that corruption takes in places like greece. that led me to some other reading about corruption in general and i come away from all of it thinking this: that's how the world works. there's no real way to get people who work in the public sector to separate their self-interest from the public interest, not completely anyway. people in positions of public trust will therefore never be completely trustworthy... they will steal information or do favors for their relatives and friends or political supporters or a thousand other things to benefit themselves. they do it to a different extent in different countries but they do it EVERYWHERE.
therefore i am not watching the YPF/Kirchner gov't junk from my normal outraged perspective, i am just trying to be rational and ask what is Really likely to happen here? what has happenned what is likely to come next?
my interpretation as to what happenned is that the Kirchner and state gov'ts looked at the announced energy discoveries and said: I want a bigger cut of this... I want to steal the whole damned company if I can pull it off to cheat the Spanish shareholders but if I can't then I want a much bigger piece of what now appears to be a much bigger pie. that's when the pressure and bull____ started.
But you really have to ask yourself if these people want to run a huge energy company. its one thing to steal an airline and install your know-nothing political allies and get them overpaid, etc etc. but its another thing to steal and then manage and in the end mess up a big energy company. energy is the single most important commodity in any country, in any society and that is from the beginning of time! so if they mess up they get run out of office and loss their top of the heap status.
I think they are too lazy and too stupid to steal the company and run it well but they are not too lazy and stupid to know how to squeeze out some profits from YPF that makes their jobs and governors easier PLUS gets them some serious personal graft.
YPF will go along with the graft and they will grease whoever they have to grease why? because they do it all over the world... ALL the big companies do, whether they are working in Argentina, China, India... it is done everywhere and not only is it done but they have decades of practice doing it.
so when i saw the sell-off today, i said ok... this is the supposedly bad news i've been waiting for and i bought some near the lows... i sold most of it but i'll keep a little now and buy more if it goes lower.
also... the pols have more ways to graft than just getting money under the table and overpaid jobs... they play the market too!!! so if they know they have no intention of doing anything about nationalization or whenever there will be some more "friedly" news? they will load up in advance... and that news is probably not too far away. these ruling class jerks will cook up something to make themselves money at everyone else's expense!!!