Some on this board believe that YPF could placate the Cristina government by adding some of its dividend to its investment budget. The divs are 1.3 billion dollars per year. Part of that 1.3 would be added to the 3B rate at which YPF invested last year IF they even want to keep up that 3B rate while under threat of nationalization and government attack...??? I don't see why YPF will do anything very constructive... as the risk escalates the YPF caluclation of probable return on investment goes down. Plus another 800m or 1B won't speed things up a whole lot.
The Cristina has backed YPF into a corner but from the point of view of getting what she claims to want, the corner is a counter-productive one.
Therefore I think the goal is something else. I think the goal is graft off of the new shale discoveries for personal wealth. This can be accomplished by extracting bribes and payoffs of many kinds. The alternative method is to manipulate the market in YPF shares downward, load up on the long side by buying as many shares as possible and by selling puts. Then all they have to do is time a kiss-and-make-up announcement so as to take optimum advantage of expiration dates and of shorts in overnight positions... so the announcement should be before the open of the market where they get as big a gap up as possible. They can gap the YPF market up by 4 or 5 dollars/share any time they want to.
The whole problem with YPF as a trade is that the outcome and the time one is stuck in the shares is totally in the hands of corrupt politicians! and first one has to figure out which way they will go with their plans. So... I think this is only a trade for government insiders, not outsiders in the public.