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Spindletop Oil & Gas Co. Message Board

  • shrewd_curmudgeon shrewd_curmudgeon Apr 21, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Intrinsic value of SPND $8.41 per share

    Here is the result of using the new data and conservative estimates of the Spindletop Oil financials. Revenue was $13.5 million, growth is over 7%, but I believe 7% can be considered achieved over long term. Taking into account margins, current assets, all liabilities, cap ex, number of shares outstanding, I calculate the 10yr discounted cash flow valuation. It is conservatively $8.41 per share.
    Year___ Rev ($M)_ NetOpProf ($M)_ Discounted FCFF ($M)
    2014_ 13.5
    2015_ 14.45_ 2.82_ 1.65
    2016_ 15.46_ 3.02_ 1.65
    2017_ 16.54_ 3.22_ 1.63
    2018_ 17.70_ 3.45_ 1.62
    2019_ 18.93_ 3.69_ 1.62
    2020_ 20.26_ 3.95_ 1.61
    2021_ 21.68_ 4.22_ 1.58
    2022_ 23.20_ 4.52_ 1.59
    2023_ 24.82_ 4.84_ 1.58
    2024_ 26.56_ 5.18_ 1.59
    FCFF earned over next 10yrs ($M): 34.1
    Valuation of Business equity ($M): 16.1
    Short term assets ($M): 13.1
    Debt ($M) -1.1
    Short term liabil ($M) -4.2
    Total intrinsic value ($M) 58.0
    Pref. share value ($M) 0.0
    Shares Out (M) 6.9
    Intrinsic value per share ($): 8.41

    I currently see SPND as a bargain below $8.41 per share... It'll get there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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SPND
4.1750.000(0.00%)Apr 16 2:28 PMEDT