Here is the result of using the new data and conservative estimates of the Spindletop Oil financials. Revenue was $13.5 million, growth is over 7%, but I believe 7% can be considered achieved over long term. Taking into account margins, current assets, all liabilities, cap ex, number of shares outstanding, I calculate the 10yr discounted cash flow valuation. It is conservatively $8.41 per share.
Year___ Rev ($M)_ NetOpProf ($M)_ Discounted FCFF ($M)
2015_ 14.45_ 2.82_ 1.65
2016_ 15.46_ 3.02_ 1.65
2017_ 16.54_ 3.22_ 1.63
2018_ 17.70_ 3.45_ 1.62
2019_ 18.93_ 3.69_ 1.62
2020_ 20.26_ 3.95_ 1.61
2021_ 21.68_ 4.22_ 1.58
2022_ 23.20_ 4.52_ 1.59
2023_ 24.82_ 4.84_ 1.58
2024_ 26.56_ 5.18_ 1.59
FCFF earned over next 10yrs ($M): 34.1
Valuation of Business equity ($M): 16.1
Short term assets ($M): 13.1
Debt ($M) -1.1
Short term liabil ($M) -4.2
Total intrinsic value ($M) 58.0
Pref. share value ($M) 0.0
Shares Out (M) 6.9
Intrinsic value per share ($): 8.41
I currently see SPND as a bargain below $8.41 per share... It'll get there.
Thank you for your analysis. My issue is that they had an outstanding fourth quarter and there was a decline in revenues and income for the first quarter 2014,adecrease which they "justified" in their SEC filing. Their cash flow increased at a very good rate for that quarter though. On the conservative side I expect them to at least repeat on revenues and income for the quarter that just ended. We should know soon.
The balance sheet is very healthy and they could consider taking this company private as they only have a small float (about 15%....1 MM shares)
Again thank you for your thorough analysis, its appreciated.
I am expecting about $3.6 million in revenue and about $0.9 million in net income. That would be great. SPND would have significant upside if they can beat these numbers.
I wish whomever it was that sold shares this morning would sell some more at that same price.
I expect the next earnings report to show up around Aug 14th.