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Emerge Energy Services LP Message Board

  • wprule wprule Jul 2, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Don't be fooled!

    There aren't many shares available, so it's very volatile. On the up days, the volume is heavy. But on the down days, there's no volume. If you don't think that institution buyers are watching and waiting patiently to get your shares, your are delusional. They will sell small amount of shares to drive down the price during the day and then buy big lot towards the end of the day. I'm in the business and aware of how the game's played.

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    • anybody else feel this thing has run away from the fundamentals? paying out the majority of cash can be great on the upswing, but what happens when the tide finally turns - which it always does in time?

      • 3 Replies to jlconner86
      • what kind of research have you done on how much sand is available and how much sand will be required as this technology evolves? We are in the 2nd inning IMHO. Drillers in the Bakken are talking about packing 20x (let me say that again....20 times) the amount of sand into frac's than was considered even one year ago. I listen to the CC's and read the analysts reports of meeting with these guys. The cost of ceramics is too high to make packing wells with it at this level feasible, but drillers are all about EUR's and IRR's and (economic ultimate recoveries and internal rate of return) and when they see results that boost returns to double or triple what they are currently receiving, they will react accordingly and they are.....nobody, on the analyst front has been watching this technology because there are few that have the drilling background to see the speed at which this technology is taking over the entire on-shore unconventional drilling space.....my biggest concern for EMES is bringing on enough sand and plants in time to keep growing at a pace this segment will command (looks like 36% this year)....by 2015 Q4, these guys will be printing something between $2.50-$2.75 in dividends and perhaps more if prices rise another 5-10% from here....would you consider this stock ahead of itself if you know that?
        How do I know that? Because there latest presentation indicated they have committments for 80% of the two new plants that are not yet even constructed. So seeing a near 10% yield about 18 months out with very clear visibility is not what one should call over-valued or ahead of itself. But what matters is the growth rate, and literally once the plants are up and running, the market will ask, what have you done for me lately other than raise the divy to a level I have already anticipated. So if you want to worry, worry about that.

      • Being an MLP, aren't they required to pay out 90% (after capex) or so in cash each qtr?

      • Well they are basically sold out for the foreseeable future so when it turns let us know. But with new capacity coming on line you are looking at adding at least another $2.50 to $3.00 to the bottom line next year.

 
EMES
105.3099-7.8801(-6.96%)10:36 AMEDT

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