Hello posters and lurkers. I do daily calcs w/ closing price and volume. These are my own propriety things. Do a 1-yr chart on yahoo. Draw a bottoms line thru the LO's in Sep, Nov and Dec01. Now draw a parallel line thru the 2 tops in Oct01 & Jan02. This channel has a down-bubble of about 5 degrees, and the current price is just above the mid-channel line. The last 2 UP moves were fairly rapid, each lasting just less than 1 month. The DOWN move between them was about 2 months long. If the current relaxation period continues in similar fashion, then a lower LO would be expected in early Mar02. I calc 3 oscillators daily. A 20-day, a 40-day, and a combo, which is the sum of the 20 & 40. Here are some results for you to think about. 20-day: LO on 12/20/01. HI on 1/22/02. No sign of a LO here. 40-day: LO on 12/27/01. Hi on 1/22/02. Not near a LO here. combo: either plus or minus(tide coming in or going out). An indicator of the current trend. Lags a bit when a turn comes. Went NEG 6/14/01. Stayed NEG thru 1/7/02 = 139 mkt days. This is a long time in correction. Went POS 1/8/02. Stayed POS thru 1/31/02 = 17 mkt days. Went NEG on 2/1/02. Accelerating DOWNWARD. Fundamentals are good to look at, but so are trends in price movements. Regards, Goofy
Goofy pretty good technicals BUT I think there is a bottom to VLCCF just from the yield ............. what is your predicted bottom in March . I do not see anything lower than 14.3 at the very low.... to many people buying here at 15.2 .............. anything lower and I have noticed buying ....... also some Mutuals are buying it down here.
Hello Mr Skid. My numbers don't have any predictions. If we had such numbers, then we'd all be much richer. These calcs show me whether the tide is coming in or going out. Slack tide is very short or doesn't happen. If you're looking at moving averages, they are very late for showing reversals. It is much better to look at the rate of change in a moving average. Usually, a bottoming condition shows up when the MA rate of change is most negative. Regards, Goofy
If I discover value BASED on fundamental assessment and a sector or industry which could be poised for reversal for those same reasons, THEN I look towards TA for some guidance on short term price trends ...
But, hey ... that's only my opinion ... best of luck to ya!