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Knightsbridge Shipping Limited Message Board

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  • phughyoung phughyoung Jul 18, 2012 4:23 PM Flag

    Norwegian Drillers Strike

    Glad you have so much confidence in your predictions.

    However, not to beat a dead horse, but the difference between earnings from 1st to 2nd quarters hardly predicts earnings from the 2nd to the 3rd or 4th quarter. Even if it did, it wouldn't say much about the dividend. There are many other factors in that calculus.

    And to state that the dividend is "still" over 10%, that the price is "firming if not climbing", and that now is the "time to buy" is just wishing that those things predicted the future.

    I don't agree and think that there is still considerable risk on the downside. Oil prices are climbing again, which depresses demand. You know that tankers are profitable at the margin, and it is marginal demand that gets killed when prices are high and rising. And that is just one of the issues, many of which have already been discussed on this board.

    Good luck to you. If I'm wrong, you'll do well and I'll have nothing on the table but cash.

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