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SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF Message Board

  • ewang1205 ewang1205 Oct 15, 2007 10:31 AM Flag


    XHB may go to $20, $15, even $10 or $8. IF XHB goes to $10 (50% drop from here), then all other stocks will go down greatly and US will be in recession. Noone knows the bottom.

    But it will go back to $30 in five years. I rate this hold for now, but I will will rate this buy when we see $18 and Strong buy when we see $15 or below.

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    • REPEAT
      XHB may go to $20, $15, even $10 or $8. IF XHB goes to $10 (50% drop from here), then all other stocks will go down greatly and US will be in recession. Noone knows the bottom.

    • The holdings in this ETF still have more face-kicking in store in '08 and probably into '09. It's hard to pick the bottom, but I certainly don't think we are there right now. Too early in the fight.

    • Are best left to themselves. So..someone is going to buy and hold this stock..and maybe??? 5 years it will go up 50% (to 30.00). In 5 years half the companies that make this index up will be insolvent or nonexistent. Homebuilders..and the lousy companies that serve them (Home Depot) are getting hammered because almost NO ONE has the financial heft to buy the crap they build. I'd suggest buying SRS before it goes back to 110.00

      • 2 Replies to g1r2p3
      • I have 1,000 shares of SRS. This hasn't performed as well as most of my short portfolio due to the high concentration of commercial REITS in IYR. I expect commercial RE to tank sometime before the end of 2008. However, the last few months have been pretty good for these REITS. I also have puts on IYR that are underwater.


      • I've been looking at buying this thing for a while. Looking for an entry to write covered calls against since they are so expensive. I'd like to see it stop going down though. It's in a very steady downtrend and if we don't hold the current lows, expect it to hit 20 in a hurry. Everything is a buy eventually, but sometimes it's best not to be a hero and wait until things settle down. You'll never get the bottom, but you'll also never get completely hosed.

    • The downturn still is in the early to middle innings. Until the builders adjust / right-size operations to the new reality, which they clearly haven't yet done, its probably still too early. Also, if one assumes a major homebuilder will declare BK before the downturn is over, I can almost promise you its still too early to buy this ETF. Inventory levels tell the tale as a leading indicator, and inventory levels are ridiculously high and only getting worse. This ETF will undoubtedly become a buy EVENTUALLY, but eventually can be a long time. I like homebuilders (what they do), which is build nice homes for families to live in, but as an investor all the arrows are pointing in the wrong direction. I'm waiting for a bankruptcy to send the homebuilder stocks into a tailspin before I'll take any large stake. Right now, Home Depot and Lowes and Sherwin Williams (and a few others) are the only stocks that look like they could be buys right now in this ETF. Problem is 75% of the ETF is homebuilders which simply continue to get crushed as they try to adjust to the current market.

      • 1 Reply to gordonfan4life2
      • I know, it's a lousy sector, but then, I've always thought that the time to nibble at the edges was when sentiment was horrid (which it seems to be).

        So, I sold my USO with crude at $90 (since I bought when crude was below $50, not a bad trade), and swapped half into XHB.

        Seen lots of ups and downs in real estate. In for the long term, so, we'll see. Since I bought 100 shares at $20.80, can't complain thus far.



    • Pray, tell, which of the fantastic equities in XHB will lead the charge higher?

      They will have to triple, because some of the other components will not be listed.


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