When they announce existing home sales for Sept this morning, XHB will rally. Housing has hit bottom - it is not getting worse. Stocks will rally as the news is not getting worse, even though it is not getting much better. Plus, all the tax loss selling is happening right now and will end before the end of October. Expect to see 20% rally over the next 2 months. XHB could easily hit $26-$27, up 20% from current levels before the end of December.
perhaps, only time will tell....
since beginning of the year, XHB has had 51 days where it's had an intraday share price that's been 50+ cents higher than the opening price (that's roughly 1 in 4 trading days), and 19 days where it's been a buck or more higher intraday, yet the share price is down over 40% for the year. the point? first, that there have been MANY instances that would appear to indicate this ETF has hit bottom (including recently) and will "breakout", only for it to fall flat on its face and second, the volatility is a money maker....
Once again this clown is wrong..home sales were horrible..and worse than that...the Index we're supposed to be discussing is new product. It is even worse. SRS flew today..and is headed back towards 110.00
This guy pumping XHB MUST either be a real estate agent or delusional.
Well, SRS is betting against REIT's (or an index like IYR), NOT against homebuilders. Also, everyone knows home sales are horrible - but they are not getting worse. That would be enough to have these XHBs trade closer to their book values (over the next year's time). And that could cause a 20-25% rally in these stocks over the next few months. In fact, when S&P500 dropped 2.6% today, XHB dropped $0.13 OR 0.62%. Need any more proof that this is a bottoming process?
I think XHB will see the teens at some point. However, I think the easy money has been made. I am putting all my new short money into financials and commercial RE.
I alreaady have 1000 shares of SRS.
I think XLF will underperform XHB going forward.
It almost hurts me to say anything positive about XHB.
I have made an average of 2.5% on my portfolio each day for the last 7 days. Since my shorts/puts are about 40% of my portfolio, this means the short part is up about 10% per day.
The idea that Home Builders...incl XHB..have hit bottom is absurd..This entire notion is promulgated by people who have no clue about investing. Since May...XHB has had a series of dead cat bounces. Believe me...this fund is headed to oblivion..there are no longer term buyers for any of this stuff..XHB..IYR.. or anything remotely resembling them. In large part because there are ALMOST NO HOME BUYERS...the home buying market is going to be confined to 3 segments...
1. Foreclosure sales..banks
2. Inventory mark downs...builders. These will be at LOSSES
3. Resales...existing homes or individual custom spec homes.
There is an enormous inventory to work off..and rate cuts are NOT aimed at working off inventory. They are aimed solely at stabilizing the packaged mortage market and keeping those POTENTIALLY solvent from capitualating.
Of course, you have no idea of what you are talking about. Homebuilders on an average trade between 0.5 and 1.5 times book value (peaks and valleys - booms and busts). Currently they trade on an average 0.65 times book value. They can go down still but they don't have to. When they rise as a group, they will rise 100% or more in 3-4 years. You just can't see that yet... like the QQQ's in 2002 trades around $20 and were supposed to go to $10 or even below that to zero. But now trade around $54. Mark this post and revisit in 1 year and then again in 2 years - XHB will be over $30 and maybe much more.
XHB is not going to rally above a typical dead cat bounce..if that. It will take major pump priming to avoid a complete disaster. Earnings?? No one is buying retail! Housing..even in beloved California..is at fire sale prices....$670K new homes...auctioned beginning at $270K. Lots of profit there. XHB pushers sound to me like they have their necks stuck too far into the long side of the homebuilder/supplier noose and are about to find out how paradigms change. DON'T FOLLOW THE LONGS...YOU WILL BE SLAUGHTERED.
"Both Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned this week that the housing downturn was likely to persist longer than had been expected."
Longer than who expected? NAHB, NAR?
Plenty of people predicted the bust would be very deep. Bernanke and Paulson were just flat wrong, and so are folks who are calling a botttom here.
oh, yes. absolutely. if September's results meet the forecast, they would be more than 25 percent below year-ago levels. that, combined with homebuilder CEO (my mistake for thinking that THEY were industry experts) sentiment sinking month after month to new record lows, clearly demonstrates that industry fundamentals are not "getting worse" and that a sustained uptick is inevitable....
as further proof that this ETF is going nowhere but up, please read the works of several of your predecessors on this board who also called the bottom many months (and dollars) ago. it is insightful, "dead nuts on" analysis like this which makes yahoo message board posts the pre-eminent authority on share price movement.
and to think it's all for free. thanks again!
p.s. i didn't know the IRS issued a notice changing the deadline from december to october for declaring investment losses on forward years tax returns. it must be in today's mail....