This is a Point and Figure chart, which may not be as familiar to most folks who look @ charts. Basically, this chart takes out a lot of the 'NOISE' that is inherent in a lot of other charts.
The point to notice is that XHB is nearing a breakout level at $17, and if it makes it through $17 there is little, or NO resistance, up to a level of $25!!!!
Also, if you go to this chart you can change the chart to XRT, which is the Retailers ETF. As you will see, the retailers are already breaking out one step ahead of the Homebuilders, and as the chart shows - the retailers bullish call is for the $48 level or $10 above today's close. If you look at a daily chart you will see that the retailers actually brokeout today above levels going back to last Oct/Nov.
The point is: The XHB is actively traded between the Housing Improvement Retailers(watch the daily holdings) and the actual Homebuilders. Frequently you can see the trader move out of Homebuildrs if they are falling and into Retailers as they are rising. He's been dead-on for months!!
Also, today Warren Buffett said in his Berkshire Annual Report that he expects the Homebuilders to do very well during the next year.
Good Luck! You can't say I didn't tell you so......well in advance!!!!!!!!!!
Here's another chart which shows a lot more detail about the breakout/retracement levels XHB is showing. Basically, when XHB clears and closes over $16.50 the charts suggest clear sailing back up to $20 to $22 without a lot of resistance.