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SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF Message Board

  • mnk2012 mnk2012 Jul 27, 2012 12:28 PM Flag

    Builder Confidence at 35 Equals Deep Depression

    A little while back, home builders were viewed more confident about the environment, but according to this analysis, they're just less depressed and still suicidal. http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=12f3jtgqd/*http://seekingalpha.com/article/735701-builder-confidence-will-prove-fleeting?source=yahoo

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    • lifted from your second link the yahoo one did not open,,thanks
      .... my opinion this time right now is the best time to be in these stocks and not as a trade. They are in the sweet spot with low existing inventory and banks strategically releasing foreclosures to a market anxiously waiting with cash. More and more mortgagors are refinancing (HARP) rather than walking away and short sales are dominating the distressed markets (and not just here in Phoenix). Rates are so low that its water cooler talk at the office.

      I don’t know how often you do field work but I am a realtor and I do. Builders are now taking “highest and best offer” on lot releases and build times are stretching out due to labor shortages. They scaled back incentives to a paltry fraction of what they were offering when you liked this group a few years ago. They’re throwing in a little closing cost incentive which is really a smokescreen to their lenders’ excessive service fees. They’re starting new communities here in the East Valley …. Not in the agricultural fringe but deep in the employment and population centers near transportation infrastructure. Demand is not just high it is alarmingly high in those areas

      • 1 Reply to lordymissmissmiss
      • This is why you want out, sentiment is very high, we have at least 30% drop in housing to complete the full correction from 07, honestly after 2016 will be good, but will make a low sometime in the next 4 years, caution, because we are in a deep bear market that is being mask, and soon will be unmasked. The high is in the markets, and the down trend will continue, it will rock people. Stay out of this market..... Thats all i have to say, you will have a chance to buy at the bottom...

 
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