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ProShares UltraShort Real Estate Message Board

  • logicalviews logicalviews Feb 25, 2008 2:45 PM Flag

    SRS New Range 80-120

    I think upside is limited at the moment based on all the rate cuts and all the negative news already out.

    I also based my range on the IYR chart. I personally would never short IYR here. Thus if I am not willing to short IYR then there is no reason to buy SRS.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Good Luck to All

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    • Interesting article. I like Cohen and Steers, but instead of ICF (which is probbably market cap weighted) I'd look at RPF. (Or RFI for one without any leverage or RWF for global.)

    • CN, good luck edujmecating the SRS board about what REITs actually own, and the long term leases, with bonded top credit tenants. But it is good to debate with those opposite view points, if for no other reason to see what possible 'logic' would account for such huge short positions in otherwise bullet-proof Reit shares. FYI
      http://seekingalpha.com/article/65783-thomas-mench-is-buying-reit-etfs-again

    • I'm not long or short any of these ETFs.

      I prefer individual REITs and actively managed CEFs.

      However, the REITs I like are normaly ones with better financials, which tend to be the smaller less popular ones. (They aren't the top 10 of SRS, but a lot of them show up lower in the SRS list.) The actively managed CEFs are also smaller (less funds under management) than these biger, more likquid ETFs.

      So, there isn't much discussion on those boards.

      Even where there is discussion on those boards, it's more like 'oh ya, if this thing gets that low again, I'm going to buy more'. That kind of discussion doesn't help me see how others (right or wrong) are thinking about the market. Nor does it give me a forum to put forward my ideas and see how they are challanged by other market participants.

    • CN,

      Curious, and no disrespect intended...

      SRS is a short play, it is the inverse of IYR. So I am curious, why you are so negative about SRS? Would you not be better posting on the IYR board on the merits of IYR?

      I only ask because unlike other stocks where there are shorts and longs - I think SRS is a one directional play.

      Correct me if I am wrong.

    • You truely do not understand what SRS is.

      What you're doing is like posting about problems in bio-tec companys on a bord with an index of software companys and assuming it's the same because both are involved in some kind of technology.

      Home. Repeat after me... Home prices increased 200 to 300% in 10 years in a few parts of the country.

      That has not much to do with SRS.

      But if u want to pretend it's the same and not invistigate any of the companys that SRS actually shorts.... well ok.

    • Some empty buildings in FL? LMAO. The real estate downturn is still in its early stages. The process takes years to work itself out. The increase in property prices in CA, FL, NV and AZ jumped 200-300% in 10 years. The downturn is going to be very ugly. I really don't understand why people aren't worried that PPI is up 1%, core up .4%, consumer confidence is down to 75, forclosures are up 57%, home prices are dropping across the whole country, Bond insurers are in trouble, there are a lot more sub-prime write downs to come from LEH and other companies. Do you think the consumer can keep borrowing against their homes and credit cards forever? I have Zero debt, but I am not the average person. I save my money. Nobody else that I know does. they spend and spend and spend. and then borrow more to spend. as home prices fall below what they owe on their mortage, what happens when they lose their job? Or need to sell their house for some other reason. Who are they going to borrow the money from to pay the bank the difference? Would you loan them money? Unemployement is also rising. there are so many problems with this economy that I could go on for days.

    • All REITS have all their property in Florida? They all own only just the areas you looked at. So you don't need to go do any research like listening to conference calls or checking out their year over year FFO. Ok.

      People here seem to like to think they are shorting commecial real estate. Period. That's actualy not true. They are shorting public companys that own commercial real estate.

      Big whopti do?

      Actually, yes.

      If you bothered to look into it, you would know that the public companys have much less leverage and are much more conservative due to share holder accountability.

      Most of the companys you are shorting have increasing FFO and greater than 90% occupency.

      But that's ok. All you need to know is that there are some empty buildings in Florida. That certainly is better than actualy doing due dillagence on what your'e shorting.

    • You are a big trader, so don't think I can tell you anything. Glad you did well in SRS. My point was just that being short a high dividend stock can be costly long term. Since I am long some smaller Reits, I can't really say 'good luck', since 'market sentiment' is driving my own positions down and up. But since short sellers are driving this market for the last 9 months, some key areas seem to be very 'over-sold' with huge short positions, especially Reits, with their high dividends.
      Good luck anyway, (maybe you will cover your shorts)

    • I agree that long term, you should not short anything, especially a 200% inverse ETF. I have made a ton of money so far on SRS last year and was doing great this year until yesterday and today. I have been long URE several times when the REIT's are oversold, but I think over the next 3-4 months, IYR and RWR will hit their 50 and sometimes their 200 day moving average and then drop from there (just like they have done in the past 12 months.) I think that the slowing growth, increasing inflation, a Fed Chairman that will do just about anything to keep the stock market afloat, will spell trouble for the stock market this summer. I will probably be 100% long again, (probably not REIT's though) by Nov, but wont be shorting much else either after May. I have 4500 shares of SRS right now. I am in around 109 on average. It should be interesting to see if SRS holds at its current support level or goes back down to 97.

    • [Commercial property values in for steep drop, says loan liquidator -- Banks starting to unload distressed real estate loans; some sellers taking 50 cents on the dollar]

      http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080222/REG/408565087/1028/TECHNOLOGY

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