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ProShares UltraShort Real Estate Message Board

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  • markweber348 markweber348 Feb 26, 2008 11:07 AM Flag

    would have expected more downside

    What is coming? Do you think the market is heading higher? I am really suprised (just as you are) that the market is not reacting to the horrible numbers that came out this morning. I have a massive short pos in CRE. I have some family members in CA who invest in RE and CRE, they tell me the situation out there is horrible and getting worse by the day. I also know some investors in FL that say the same thing. I made a lot on RE in 2003-2005, but would not touch any property (unless it was a forclosure at a huge discount) for at least 1 year and 2-3 years in the most troubled states. FL, AZ, NV and CA. I know that 4 states dont make up our economy, but 1 in 7 people in the US live in CA and when you combine the population of those 4 states you have about 20%-25% of the US population. That is a pretty big deal.

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    • My theory is that the bond market topping has something to do with all of this. Money ran into TBills driving rates down to unrealistic levels. Now that dumb money is racing out looking for a new home. We are talking about allot of money here, much more than exists in the stock market.

      I think this is fuel for the higher prices in the market. Eventually after this ABC counter trend rally is over (I think we are now in wave C up).
      In a few weeks these nincompoops will realise that this rally was just the hounds (bond bears) to the hunters (stock bears waiting for them at the 200dma).

      Go figure, the market is dumber then the dumbest person alive.

      Thats why its so hard to time.

 
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