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Pandora Media, Inc. Message Board

  • smallormidcapman smallormidcapman Feb 27, 2012 1:01 PM Flag

    Jumped in at $12.85

    I have been trading stocks or over 10 years. I have been successful 9/10 years and consider myself to be a very savvy tech investor. I didn't trade at all the past 12 months as I took all my money out of the market (sold F @ $17.50) last January and bought a business. I have been watching P since the IPO and here is what I see:

    ~ P has rock solid support in the $13 range
    ~ Subscriber metrics used to judge the health of P are all sound and increasing
    ~ P has the chance to be profitable MUCH sooner than they are given credit for
    ~ P has much lower content acquisition costs than SIRI or NFLX and can't be judged the same way
    ~ P with an RSI of 40 with earnings on Thursday is a PERFECT time to buy..I expect a 20-40% pop

    For all the SIRI vs P isn't a zero sum game and both companies will continue to do well. P has the advantage short term imho because of the lower debt and and the lower content acquisition costs compared to SIRI.

    But wtf do I know right?

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    • Oh, HERE's the intelligent discussion regarding Pandora.

      I notice that NOTHING discussed on this thread has come to fruition.

      My favorites:

      "P has rock solid support in the $13 range"

      "P has the chance to be profitable MUCH sooner than they are given credit for"

      "P with an RSI of 40 with earnings on Thursday is a PERFECT time to buy..I expect a 20-40% pop"

      ^that's my ALL-TIME favorite! A 20-40% pop ended up being a 40% drop!

      "Wow, an intelligent exchange of information on this board… good to see!"



      Guess you're not as savvy as you claim. And here's something to counter what you see:

      "For Q1, Pandora sees revenue of $72 million to $75 million, and a non-GAAP loss of 18-21 cents a share, well shut of the Street consensus of $86.6 million and a loss of 2 cents."


    • davesmith49 Feb 28, 2012 4:36 PM Flag

      I like the company long-term. I'm not sure where it is technically right now. I believe Pandora will report $.01 earnings this upcoming quarter, which is higher than consensus.

      I use both Pandora and Sirius radio and never knew they were in competition until I started reading these message boards. They provide 2 different things to me. Sirius advantage to me is that it's satellite based and gives better coverage while I'm driving, although there are only 2-3 stations that I listen to, and if they all play something I don't like I'm stuck with it. Pandora is better on content because you can tailor multiple radio stations just the way you like them and skip bad songs. If Pandora ever forced me to buy their service or would not provide it I would buy it. In Alabama, without Pandora or Sirius it's Country music hell on the radio. I will continue to use them both as I have done for years.

    • We can clean this board up, it might be time for a liberal use of the Ignore feature.
      Some of the postings are just plain dumb, you have to wonder why they even bother.

    • Smallormidcapman,

      Those are some sound and logical observations, welcome aboard.

      • 1 Reply to radisright
      • Thanks. I'll offer a few more observations after the earnings call. Like any stock, I reevaluate my position every 90 days and never (well rarely) fall in love with a stock.

        Obviously the biggest challenge for Pandora is how to monetize the explosive subscriber growth and listener base. Advertisers will likely be the key revenue driver for the free service but paid subscribers (like me) are where the traction will come from imho. I use it for my personal use as well and play it at work as well.

        Many new car stereo head units (decks) now offer built in Pandora, or like me, just hook up your cellphone to the USB jack on the deck. The OEM guys (Ford, Lincoln, Hyundai, Toyota) could be HUGE in near term growth. I guess wireless coverage is the Achilles heel in this biggest potential growth market and that is where SIRI does have an advantage...coverage.

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