The revenues have increased manifold over the last few years, but the losses have continued. Even in Q1'14, the revenues increased by 55% from $80 million to $125 million, but the losses increased from $20 million to $28 million. Though Q1'14 can not be extrapolated directly, the guidance for 2014 appears a bit difficult to meet at this stage. For fiscal 2014, the guidance is for revenue of $615 million to $635 million and the non‐GAAP EPS is expected to be between ($0.02) and $0.08. Meanwhile, the stock has done well over the last few quarters with over 80% appreciation over the past one year. Over the longer term, the stock has appreciated by around 42% since the beginning (June 2011), indicating that the momentum is more recent. The other metrics of Pandora look good with mobile listening hours and mobile ad revenue reaching record highs. In Q1'14, mobile revenue comprised 67% of the total revenues. However, competition is strong, with existing players like Sirius (SIRI) also doing well, and the upcoming iTunes radio from Apple (AAPL) likely to provide competition. Further, other entertainment segments like mobile games, youtube and social media provide indirect competition. Engaging concepts are emerging in entertainment / social media. For example, Yappn (YPPN) provides a social media platform where users can chat / interact in their own language. The tools translate the messages into the user's language thereby eliminating the barriers to communication and increasing the usage substantially. So the growth in revenues for Pandora may not be as fast in the future. Base effect will also come into play. Pandora needs to find ways to turn net positive soon so that the outlook changes decisively. This is because the stock has already appreciated a lot, and the fundamentals need to catch up soon.
“However, competition is strong, with existing players like Sirius (SIRI) also doing well, and the upcoming iTunes radio from Apple (AAPL) likely to provide competition.”
I respectfully disagree…
Sirius XM is a paid subscription base, satellite delivered product with which you cannot build or tailor your own music tastes. Something as simple as skipping a song you do not like is not possible. Pandora may take potential listeners from Sirius but not vice versa. As far as Apple and “likely” in “the future”… well, “maybe” but that can be a lot of “ifs”. Also if you have checkout the product that Apple is proposing for future marketing, iOS 4, you will find it has a different focus e.g. “Buy This Song” and is very different from Pandora and the MGP.
The bottom line is that Pandora has always had strong competition, but because of its PRODUCT, Pandora has 71+ million active listeners and commands 75% of the entire Internet Radio Market.
And I disrespectfully say you don't know what you're talking about, or would rather flat out lie to promote your own agenda:
"Sirius XM is a paid subscription base, satellite delivered product with which you cannot build or tailor your own music tastes. Something as simple as skipping a song you do not like is not possible".
You must live under a bridge, since you've not heard of SiriusXM Internet Radio which has been out for over two years, and the more recent introduction of MySXM to the Internet Radio app.
Here's some info:
Now featuring personalized music and comedy channels with MySXM! With the SiriusXM Internet Radio App, you can listen to what you want, when you want. In addition to live streaming, the SiriusXM Internet Radio App now allows you to personalize many of your favorite SiriusXM music and comedy channels with MySXM – so you hear more of what you want and less of what you don’t. Plus, with SiriusXM On Demand, listen to hundreds of shows, including Howard Stern, Bob Dylan’s Theme Time Radio Hour, Tom Petty’s Buried Treasure, The Opie & Anthony Show, Martha Stewart, Dr. Laura, Bob Edwards, Christopher “Mad Dog” Russo and much more. You can even store select On Demand content for a period of time, allowing for offline listening anywhere, at anytime.
• Stream SiriusXM channels live, including channels available only online
• Personalize many of your favorite music and comedy channels with MySXM
• Get On Demand access to our large catalog of content and listen on your schedule
• Store select talk and entertainment content for a period of time for offline listening anywhere, at anytime
• Pause, Fast Forward and Rewind live radio and On Demand content
• Hear shows from the beginning, even if you've just tuned to that channel, with Start Now
• Track your favorite Shows and receive notifications when new episodes are available
• Automatically hear currently playing songs from the beginning when tuning to music channels with TuneStart