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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jul 1, 2011 3:25 AM Flag

    I put my money where my mouth was.

    I now own fully 2% of HTCH, with purchases the last 4 trading days.

    The exciting thing about this stock is, if the selling simply STOPS (and with no more pressure from index-selling, why shouldn't it?), the natural tendency will be for the stock to drift up, slowly, over time. As as that happens, the perceived building of "momentum" has a good chance of bringing in more buyers, creating the potential for a "pop." Then, we have the FUNDAMENTALS that are on our side, with an earnings report coming out about 4 weeks from now (and I would anticipate SOME people buying in anticipation of that report).

    In short, it's hard not to be sanguine here. The only risk in this, as I see it (but ONLY for the very short term) is the high profile nature of the S&P WDC downgrade. On the other hand, S&P maintained a price target of $34 for WDC, so it's not like the sky is falling. And besides, WDC didn't really go down, in after hours trading, from what I can tell (unless it was halted??)

    I suppose the initial lack of participation in the debt exchange lends of element of risk, but it's really hard to see why I does. (Personally, I rather like the increased chance that eventual dilution from any potential exchange may be less than I original feared.)

    HTCH at these prices reminds me of the negative pall that was lording over HERO last fall, when it was (coincidentally) at $2.40 or so, which, I believe, was the last stock that I put on "SUPER STRONG BUY." HTCH, at current prices, has that same "feel" to me. (Everyone hates it. And no one loves it.) We had an earnings report from HERO that was much less worse than I thought it would be (indicating the company was going to be a survivor, despite the "distressed" price of its stock), and the stock started moving right after that. I predicted that 9 out of the next 10 trading days would be up for the stock (or something like that), and I ended up being right. I have a similar INKLING, or even more than an inkling, of a turnaround, for HTCH now, and yet the stock has REFUSED to respond. (It did initially, a bit, on the improved sales guidance, but then dropped back because of index removals, I believe.)

    In short, and I know this is ad nauseum at this point, but I believe the NATURAL TENDENCY now will be for the stock price of HTCH to rise. And, as that happens, it will be much more likely for it to "catch a wave," as a certain amount of counter-emotional CONFIDENCE returns here, versus the seemingly utter despair that has been the order of the day for the last 6 months. Or more.

    I believe we are at the inflection point. Hence, super strong buy.

    PLEASE do your own due diligence. I am not an expert in the technology field, and if industry analysts are wrong, and SSD's come on stronger than most serious analysts expect, my bullish scenario could, possibly (although only in an outlier scenario), go out the window. There are, of course, other risks. Like customer concentration risk. Etc., etc., etc.

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