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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • smaycs4 smaycs4 Nov 18, 2012 12:26 AM Flag

    No more kool-aid for me !

    Having listened to LTFs screaming buys from 2 and a half years ago at $5.51, $5.06, $4.51 and $3.06, Ive decided to stop drinking the kool-aid while I tend to my wounds.

    If I only end up losing 30% on my $4.44 avg cost, I will be thrilled.

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    • Thank you smaycs4 for leaving more kool-aid for me at very attractive prices. I more than doubled down of late. Hutch, the company, will be generating so much profit and cash flow one year from now that it will be truly unbelievable....until you go back and listen to the recent cc. This is as close as a drive company can get to telling you that the future is bbbbrrrriiiiggggghhhhtttt. Cheers.

    • It's wrong for you to say I called it a "screaming buy" at $5.51, $5.06, and $4.51. $3.06 maybe, but not those other 3 prices. If you can substantiate otherwise, I'll happily eat crow.

      The fact that your average cost is $4.44 is solely your fault, and really, quite foolish. That is, if you didn't have faith in this company as a turnaround candidate to average down (I got my average cost down to $2.15, despite all my earlier buying), you probably should, or should have, sold out and taken your loss.

      Successful value investing is about having the discipline to average down, and maintain the courage of one's convictions, based on the fundamentals. Or, if the fundamentals turn south, having the discipline to change one's mind. I changed my mind on investments like FBN at $4-5, and got out quite whole. That's one of the reasons my annualized returns are so high. (I don't suffer losses, these days, in the way I used to...and I don't get stuck with value traps as often.) You held on, with FBN, even though I posted on public msg boards tha I was getting out. Bitterness has never been a strategy. Discipline is. I aggressively averaged down in HTCH for 2 very important reasons. One, the story got better, in terms of growth and margin expansion potential. Two, the time frame of that happening, and likelihood of that happening, has become significantly more certain in my mind.

      Now, it is just a matter of waiting. And, unlike you, I am quite patient, and never bitter, when I an convinced that I "know what I own."

      I would encourage you in the future to never buy ANY stock that I own, just because I own it. That way, you can take responsibility for each and every one of your own investments. If my acting in good faith, on these message boards, isn't good enough for you, then I'm sorry.

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