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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • uptabdowntab uptabdowntab Mar 21, 2013 5:14 PM Flag

    Analyst estimates for HTCH are silly, maybe they will provide

    a catalyst when they start moving the numbers up to where they should be.

    Only 3 analysts cover, but their numbers for FY14 (which starts Oct 1, 2013) are way too low. Avg of the 3 is a negative 40 cents with the highest analyst at about plus 2 cents.

    At the last cc, it seemed clear to me that Hutch is going to crossover to profitability in about September or October, only 6 or 7 months from now. This means it is very likely that every quarter of FY14 is going to be profitable.

    I expect Hutch to have GAAP EPS of close to $1 for FY14.

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    • Sorry to all for replying to my own post, but I just spent a few minutes staring at various HTCH stock charts and looking at a few numbers....some thoughts...

      In the last 6 months, volume on UP days far exceeds that on DOWN days. I like that.

      The 200dMA is moving up quickly and is now solidly over $2. I like that. The 50dMA is going sideways to down so that sort of stinks but it does need to get back a little closer to the 200dMA before another surge....maybe.

      I hadn't realized that about 1.8mil shares are shorted. While less than 10% of the 25mil total shares, it is still a significant number since it represents 13 days of avg. volume. I like the 1.8 number since it isn't so large as to make me fearful but is large enough to provide fuel for the fire once HTCH surges higher.

      Looking at a chart of several decades shows HTCH is still historically cheap at this level.

      Feelin good! Cheers.

    • Your viewpoint is not unreasonable, imho.

 
HTCH
3.66-0.03(-0.81%)Apr 28 4:00 PMEDT