Anyone else read the Seeking Alpha article on the (possible) new Hutch product? Reaction? Is this something that has the potential to transform the company from a cigar butt business (hard drives) to something else, something with a brighter future?
In my opinion, the SA article illustrated the stupidity of the author. He got it completely wrong about why HTCH fell and what happened to their volumes. The right reason is they played hardball with Seagate a couple years ago and lost. Simple as that.
He is also woefully wrong about SSD. But for this he can be forgiven since he is in a crowd with many.
HTCH is going to rise long, hard, and strong because they will have significant EPS in FY14 starting Oct 1st. This will be from their core HDD business and nothing else...IMO.
I did find the "new product" angle of the article interesting. I have no idea if it is true. If it is true I hope it does not become a costly distraction for Hutch. Best case would be it is true and they can license it to the camera boys and collect royalties and license fees.
The problem with Segate is HTCH could not deliver on time. They should have the best old product out on the market by now. I wouldnt be surprised they gain the markwt back with quality and price. Now, to discuss new product... hard to make new product- most fail or take years to perfect. What I would like is if the new product uses their existing process and knowledge. If this is a stabilizer then HTCH may do well.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Been here twice--followed it for 6 years
don't recall ANY research, or otherwise, implying that HTCH will be even close to a sniff of profitability during calendar 2013..furthermore, given there track record, I'd expect them to sell out before they ever make money again since they missed the boat in 2005-9 with their poor decisions.
My thought is buying here, later in the year below $2.00(tax loss sellers) and holding from there.( me thinks I'll get my way)
Management will either be forced to sell in 2014-2015 or simply give up......
Good luck, nonetheless on your bold profit outlook in October...
There was a comment posted around 11 CDT that elaborates on what really happened and why it bodes well for the near term prospects of HTCH. It just might have gotten someone off the fence.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I started this thread and believe it sparked some intelligent comments from people who know the industry and the stock better than I do.
But I cannot help but wonder whether the new product story was an intentional leak by the company intended to send a message to the markets along these lines: "Yes, disk technology is a dinosaur and, like the dinosaurs, doomed. But we're not dopes -- we know that, too. And we're working to be more than just hard drives. You see, there's this other thing we're working on..."
Now, there is nothing wrong with that. But I just can't work up the enthusiasm for this stock that others do. (Full disclosure: I followed Longtime here.) I know, I know -- then I should sell and go away. But I do feel like there is another puff of two left in this cigar butt, and am holding for that moment.
Yes, disk drives will be around a long time. So will laptops and newspapers, but don't tell that to owners of Dell and Gannett who are in at far higher prices they may never see again. I would love to see a convincing case that the disk drive market will remain as big in 10 years as it is now but I just don't see it.
Just my 2 cents. Which, come to think of it, is probably not even worth that much.