1) They have piled a lot of investment into TSA+, so EPS understates free cash flow by close to $1 per share, with reasonable capex levels going forward.
2) The operating leverage calls for pricing in some expectation of earnings rising significantly in the 2-4 year outlook. The difference between breakeven and $1 or even $2 is much less than your post lets on. They probably break even with quarterly production around 120-125 million units at this point. Another 25 million units a quarter, give or take, would give us annual EPS around $1. In this industry, that kind of production change can happen in the blink of an eye.
3) They will probably be profitable in 2014. We are in a cycle of positive earnings revisions, and the company has certainly been priming us to expect a production uptick in the next couple of quarters.
Per the last cc, breakeven is 104million units.
EPS for FY14 starting Oct 1st will be well over 80 cents....my estimate.
EPS for FY15 or 16 could be north of $2 if everything goes right and they get some new drive programs.