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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • disk_investor2 disk_investor2 Jul 27, 2013 7:47 PM Flag

    Here' HOW HTCH GETS TO 130 M SHIPS in 2014

    Here's the math for all the hedge fund trader morons :

    110 M ships in the current quarter plus 5% drive TAM growth gets them up to 116 M units in the December quarter.

    The average drive capacity has grown 25% over the past 18 months rising the average number of suspensions per drive to 3.2. If that grows to just 3.3 that lifts suspension ships by 3% or 4 million units for HTCH. So that gets them up to 120 M units.

    FYI, HTCH is leading the DSA qualifications, while NHK has had some ISSUES. DSA will be the primary suspension shipped next year. If this allows HTCH to increase market share from current 21% to just 23%, that's another 10-12 million units.

    So that's how they get to 130 M units, WITHOUT any TAM growth beyond the December quarter. Another factor I ignored is the growth of cloud storage drive ships, estimated by CSCO to run at a 45% CAGR through 2016. FYI, HTCH sells enterprise suspensions to STX, WDC, & HGST.

    Too bad you can't think for yourself, but rather let SAC & CC traders and their friends talk you into shorting HTCH on nonsense.

    Best advice cover your short before the rest of your moron hedge fund trader buds cover theirs.

    PS-HGST buys 60 M suspensions per quarter from HTCH's competitors. WDC is HTCH's largest customer and does not want HTCH to disappear. WDC is running HGST.

    THINK ABOUT THAT MORON!

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    • make them up.....

    • Not sure where your numbers come from but Hutchinson volumes trails competition by a factor of 2. Magnecomp shipped 190m units and about the same total for NHK. So are you thinking DSA transition will save the day? 70% of Magnecomp's shipments in CQ2 were DSA while NHK's DSA units were just north of 40% of NHK's total in the same Q. HTCH is the third man out; way out with blindingly lower volumes.

      • 2 Replies to ranger_danger9
      • "Magnecomp shipped 190m units and about the same total for NHK. So are you thinking DSA transition will save the day? 70% of Magnecomp's shipments in CQ2 were DSA"

        ????????????????

        Strange TDK is not reporting CQ2 results until Wednesday and you already have DSA shipments for CQ2?????

      • "Not sure where your numbers come from but Hutchinson volumes trails competition by a factor of 2"

        Nothing new, that has been the case for several years. HTCH has 21% of the suspension market while the remainder is split between NHK & TDK Magnecomp:

        "Not sure where your numbers come from"

        Here is where my numbers came from:

        1. HTCH guided up to 110 M units this quarter:
        2. Both STX & WDC guided to 2% to 5% TAM growth this quarter
        3. Drive TAM typically sequentially grows 4% to 5% in December quarter
        4. Last two quarters TAM was 270 M units or 540 M on annual basis. If TAM grows to 580 M units by end of this year with 3.3 suspensions/drive that's 1.95 B suspensions. If HTCH gains 2% share of market, that's 9.5 M more suspension ships per quarter.

        Now you are right that HTCH's DSA ships were weaker than expected last quarter, but that was due to the operational problems, . HTCH guided to 40% of total ships being DSA in the June quarter, but only came in at 20%. If the operational issues are behind them, that should grow.

        FYI, Three other ways for HTCH to gain share besides DSA:

        1. New program wins at STX, just 12% of total revs last quarter
        2. HTCH is the leading supplier of enterprise suspensions and the cloud storage is growing 40% CAGR, last quarter STX nearline ships grew 15%.
        3. HGST still purchasing 60 M suspensions/qtr elsewhere

        As far as HTCH exiting the market, do you really think the drive manufacturers want just two suspension suppliers? What happens if one of them has a major problem? Remember what happened when the flood took out 60% of WDC's production???? If I was one of the PC OEMs and we had another multi-quarter drive supply glitch, I would NOT BE HAPPY!

        THINK ABOUT IT!

    • hey MORON, htch ships will see alltime lows... last quarter ships of 99 mill are an absolute EMBARRASSMENT... there is no hope here unless you are an absolute FOOL.. only ones profiting here are the insider employees... they will take outrageous salaries no matter what.. this leads to enormous operating losses for the foreseeable future... and much lower stock prices to follow... wipe that snot off your nose fool, yeat the livng snot oua ya

 
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