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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jul 30, 2013 9:22 PM Flag

    finding support at $3.50.

    But I'm not sure it's going to hold...unless the insiders come in and buy.

    It's just a guess, but I'm thinking $3.25 is more of the "market clearing" price in the tug of war between buyers and the short term. There's just too many "hot money" buyers that are just thoroughly disgusted, and looking to get out...and they're waiting foe the "next bounce." When that doesn't come, they are going to start capitulating.

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    • Just a few random thoughts....

      One year from now, it is likely that Hutch will be shipping approx 140mil suspensions per quarter and will have EPS of about 30 cents per quarter.

      One year from now, it is likely that Hutch will be shipping approx 99mil suspensions per quarter and will have EPS of about -20cents per quarter.

      Seems to me there is a strong case that can be made for the first statement and many ways for them to get there. Also seems to me there is a good chance for huge upside to that number and a way for Hutch to hit 200mil ships in 18 months or so.

      Upside could be as simple as Seagate qualifying them on some of the high volume PSG drive programs or Hitachi shifting some volume to Hutch. It might also be the result of a competitor stumbling and Hutch allocations increasing significantly. Perhaps drive yields will be better with hutch parts and allocation shifts in their direction.

      So, what is the company worth? Today the market says $94mil.

      Let's say Hutch performs..... valuation should approach 1X rev or about $360mil which is $13 per share.

      Let's say Hutch doesn't deliver.....downside is maybe $2 per share....but at this point the liklihood of "doesn't deliver" is extremely low.

      I like my chances.

      Heck, even the bears/shorts/manipulatiors are only playing the game now in an effort to acquire HTCH shares at the best price possible. They have 2 more months to do so.

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