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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

  • mtaotter mtaotter Oct 30, 2013 4:26 PM Flag

    Trick or Treat?

    I'm going with treat.

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    • DUMP the stink... hutch is a scam.. wildly high salaries paid to limpdeek fools... thus can NEVER be profitable.. large losses will slam out for the foreseeable future... it stinks and it stinks bad... It may well dump to the low 2's tomorrow, so get ready to pinch your nose and flush your shares... the lift to 6 was a pump/dump scam.. it will never get there ever again.. this is a bankruptcy...

    • The betting today seems to be more on the trick side. I always imagine that word leaks--there are so many people in the know--accountants, lawyers, suppliers with day -to-day contact with company employees, the employees themselves or their relatives who may have heard table talk. The SEC can't be everywhere. But we'll see. This one appears to be months away still from significant production gains.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to keyes_fred
      • Believe it or not, but I sort of think that in the world of hard drive companies, there are far fewer accurate leaks of quarterly performance than in any other sector. It is virtually impossible for any employee to figure out the bottom line number due to all the factors that come into play. There are multiple programs and confusing yields and irratic shipments and pricing tweaks and crisis after crisis that influence those too close. Sure, the 1 or 2 top guys in Accounting/CFO/CEO know ahead of time but that's about it. I'm certain the BOD doesn't have a clue so there is really only 3 or 4 people who know the numbers a few days or weeks ahead of time.

        That said, I would guess that many employees and others can figure out reasonably close how the top line revenue number is going to look. I mean, in Hutch's last official guidance, they told us as much so there will not be any surprise there.

        All that matters for forward stock price is forward guidance and q&a in the cc.

        I do like the Trick or Treat subject line, very timely.

        I am now certain that no matter what the numbers/guidance are tonight I will be adding shares over the next week. If they are a disaster, wonderful!, then I get shares at 2.60. If they are great, wonderful! then I get shares at 4.20 tomorrow morning. The key is that HTCH will be $12-$15 at some point in 2014.

      • I've been burned too often in situations like this. I think Fred is correct and I think HTCH needs more time. I will be heading for the hills tomorrow and access things on Friday.

      • I respectfully disagree. I find rumors of leaks to be overblown. I think the real buying by insiders went on before the 3rd (down) quarter. This allows them an amount of protection from any claims that there were leaks.

        As far as months away, I believe it was the 1st and 2nd quarter conference calls where management said things will not pick up until the Fourth. The fourth is when HTCH will get "traction," they said. They also alerted analysts in the second quarter to more old inventory roll out that would be reflected in the third, but the analysts kept their expectations for the third too high for some reason.

        WDC has been on a tear, and though STX missed, its chart also provides the same trend.

        I think HTCH has worked hard and is due, and I think this is where they get traction.

        The HTCH chart today looked like walk down accumulations. Probably see a little more tomorrow and at some point an uptick going into close with fingers crossed.

        The densities on these little widgets are improving profit margin. The cost of labor and manufacturing is very low. The cash position is reasonable. The ramps are finally on target, and it seems they worked the kinks out. The floods, earthquakes and other plagues seem to be behind them for the time being. They moved 50-60% of their equipment into Thailand.

        The poor performance last quarter set the bar low for all expectations this quarter.

        The future looks bright.

 
HTCH
2.10-0.01(-0.47%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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