Good SA article - my comments on CELG under article...
That's a good Seeking Alpha article - they did publish my comments at the bottom of the article here they are...
Good seeking alpha article -- see "headlines" under CELG – after the article I posted some comments as “biothoughts”.
Celgene is still inexpensive by many measures vs stocks like BIIB and AMGN and GILD. Still under a 1.0 PEG ratio & not expensive at all. Best EPS growth in all of biotech - near the tops in the ENTIRE S&P 500. And even with all the good news there are still MANY very big near term catalysts coming.
As I posted here a yr ago – it would soon become apparent that we will have 5 separate billion $ a yr drugs.
People put down Abraxane – then CELG got lung cancer approval, stunning melanoma and Pancreatic Cancer top line that could make this the standard of care in this difficult disease. Some didn't believe in Apremilast - they said its impossible to have an oral PDE4 inhibitor without serious GI side effects. They forgot about oral aza and the rest of the pipeline. And they are STILL underestimating Pomalidomide as well as International Revlimid sales and Non-Myeloma Revlimid sales. The pipeline is still seriously undervalued at the current PPS. They continue to miss the "earning leverage story" as international sales ramp with industry high margins and industry low tax rates combined with a world class buyback/capital plan.
So what was the turning point yesterday – sure the $13-$14 EPS in 2017 helps as at a 1 PEG that is a $280-$300 stock in 2017 discounted back. This stock is still cheap
But to me what was of paramount importance was the Apremilast news. Most of us were expecting only Esteem 1 results but CEO Hugin delivered a stunner as “breaking news” that they had BOTH Esteem 1 and Esteem 2 trial results – 2 Phase 3 trials with an impressive 1250 patients and the key word was HIGHLY statistically significant with positive safety profile consistent with the THREE PsA Ph 3 trials and EVEN better than the Phase 2 positive safety results. Then after reading the Apremilast PR investors started to realize that the endpoint is PASI 75 – which if you talk to dermatologists is a pretty high bar and HIGHLY stat sig over this bar is amazing for an oral PDE-4 inhibitor. When you look at tthe side effects of Enbrel – you wonder why anyone would ever again take Enbrel before at least trying Apremilast once approved.
In addition the comments on EU front line and what is in the long term guidance exudes confidence in Pomalidomide, Apremilast, Abraxane Pancreatic Cancer detailed data coming and MM-020 coming results.
Before this weeks move this stock had not reacted to all the positive news in the second half of 2012 but this is only the beginning with MANY big catalysts still to come including: China/Mexico/Brazil/South Korea/Russia Revlimid approvals, Pomalidomide approval, MM-020 data, detail Pancreatic Cancer OS data Jan 25th at ASCO GI, and more. Yes the stock is still cheap by almost any measure. Its still under a 1.0 PEG ratio. Its at a ridiculous discount to 3 or 5 yr discounted cash flow or discounted earnings stream. And it still does not reflect the value of this companies pipeline, strong margins, amazing cash flow and now world class capital plan completing the third leg of the stool thanks to our superstar CFO. Ms Jackie Fouse is the best CFO in all of biotech and CEO Hugin has assembled one of the best biotech executive teams in the world