Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Celgene Corporation Message Board

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Jan 11, 2013 9:09 AM Flag

    Lazard - CELG: Raising PT to $123 (from $90) as EPS CAGR poised to accelerate; BUY

    From JBWIN
    Lazard - CELG: Raising PT to $123 (from $90) as EPS CAGR poised to accelerate; BUY

    Highlights: This week CELG pre-announced 2012 net product
    sales of $5.5B and EPS of ~$4.90 versus our respective
    (previous) estimates of $5.35B and $4.80. More importantly,
    management provided 2013 guidance (product sales of $6B
    and EPS of $5.50-$5.60 versus our prior estimates of $5.9B and
    $5.37). Management's long-term targets include 2015 product
    sales of $8B-$9B and EPS of $8-$9 versus our prior $7.8B and
    $7.82 estimates and 2017 product sales of $12B and EPS of
    $13-$14 versus our prior $9.6B and $10.59 estimates. Given
    the updated guidance, we are raising our estimates to reflect
    the company's strong and accelerating growth prospects. CELG
    remains one of our top picks for 2013 as we expect positive
    pipeline catalysts and earnings acceleration to continue to drive
    multiple expansion.

    ■ Updated numbers reflect accelerating bottom-line growth:
    Our updated 2013, 2015, and 2017 product sales estimates
    are now $5.97B, $7.96B, and $9.98B and our EPS estimates
    are $5.52, $8.39 and $12.74, which we think still leaves room
    for upside. Rationale for the changes is the strong Revlimid
    4Q performance which bodes well for future numbers, recently
    positive apremilast Phase III data in psoriasis for which the
    company expressed significant confidence, and the company's
    expression of confidence in the Abraxane pancreatic cancer
    Phase III dataset.

    ■ Revised quant analysis: Based on our revised estimates and
    our projections for long-term EPS growth as a determinant of
    forward P/E multiples, our updated quant analysis now predicts
    a one-year price of $123/share, which also matches our DCF
    analysis. Notably, using Street estimates projects an even higher
    one-year price of $142/share. Our price target represents a 22x
    P/E multiple on our new 2013 EPS estimate of $5.52 versus the
    current multiple of 17x. As the company's three-year forward
    EPS CAGR accelerates from 20% in 2012 to 24% in 2013
    and 25% in 2014, by our estimates, we expect the multiple will
    continue to expand. Additionally, there could be upside to our
    2013/beyond estimates. That said, we believe a 22x P/E multiple
    is very reasonable for a company poised to deliver such strong
    long-term growth

 
CELG
131.25-0.63(-0.48%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT