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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 17, 2013 11:19 AM Flag

    CHEAPEST GROWTH IN S&P. 0.8 PEG vs AMGN/BIIB 1.2/1.1. 2016 PEG is CRAZY 0.4

    New ISI '13 CELG PEG is 0.8 vs 1.2-1.1 for AMGN & BIIB. PEG is 0.6/0.5 x for '14/'15. (In 2015 half of AMGN / much lower than BIIB & CELG EPS has to go up imo). 2016 PEG is 0.4. (.30 PEG w real numbers imo)...

    CRAZY CHEAP EARNINGS GROWTH EVEN AT 98 - TOUGH TO BELIEVE BIG PHARMA IS NOT LOOKING AT THIS POST APREMILAST, POMALIDOMIDE AND PANCREATIC CANCER DATA.

    WHAT IS OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE IS THAT EVEN AFTER THIS RUN TO 98 THIS STOCK IS VERY VERY UNDERPRICED FOR 25% EARNINGS GROWTH, ONE OF THE HIGHEST EPS GROWTH RATES NOT JUST IN HEALTHCARE AND BIOTECH SECTORS, BUT IN THE ENTIRE S&P 500

    Company 2013-2014-2015-2016 (OUT TODAY FROM ISI)

    AMGN 1.2x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x

    CELG 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x (Based on EPS that is $1.00+ low imo)

    BIIB 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x 0.6x

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    • It is indeed true that Celgene despite the recent run up is dirt cheap vs AMGN and BIIB - has a MUCH better pipeline and growth rate than both of those and is still at a DEEP DEEP disount from a PE to EPS growth perspective.

      I see this $110 quickly after earnings call and Abraxane Ph 3 Panc ca survival data this week. Add another $3 - $5 when Pomalyst is approved in the next 2 weeks and then if MM020 is great - you can add another $15 over the following week or so.

    • Still a 0.8 PEG ratio - cheapest earnings growth in biotech. Based on conservative 2017 numbers, 0.4 PEG so you are getting 25% EPS growth for less than half price. Crazy cheap. Going from 1 $billion per yr drug to 5 $billion per yr drugs

    • Agree this is so cheap its amazing. $14 conservative EPS with a 25% eps growth rate.
      Easy 200 buck stock in 15 and 350 in 2017

    • Rob, been reading your posts for years and your spot on.I think the reason Big Pharma isnt jumping is because the amount of cash and shares they would have to come up with.Your thoughts?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bemisbayoutfitters
      • No that's not it imo. This would be an accretive deal - their stocks are bloated and they could do a half stock - half cash deal easily and the cash would be paid back by CELG's own cash flow the next 5 yrs or so. The reason was the large percentage of sales that Revlimid represented with the BS SPM issue (a melphalan issue which will be proved later this qtr in the MM020 trial - even though its really already been proven). But now we are on our way to 5 separate billion a yr drugs(2 of them $5 billion plus imo) and Big Pharma is definitely looking imo. CELG will either go to $120s on its own soon or be taken out imo

 
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