On 6/18, we hosted an investor meeting with CELG management in Boston.
Overall, the meeting reinforced our view that CELG is on the verge of a major upward growth inflection point, driven by Revlimid/Abraxane/Apremilast/Pomalyst, and we would be buyers of the stock at current levels.
Revlimid in NDMM/maintenance MM - likely definitive safety data at ASH'13. CELG reported that Ph.III, MM-020 top-line results are not imminent in June, but on-track for 3Q13. However, the initial data release is unlikely to have details on OS benefit or SPM frequency with Rd-R. These results will be reported at ASH'13. We continue to expect a positive outcome, with OS trends and, importantly, SPM risk favoring Rd-R vs. MPT from this trial.
Apremilast launch positioning clearer. CELG believes the positive LT PALACE-1 efficacy/safety results will be key to positioning Apremilast ahead of the anti-TNFs in psoriatic arthritis, and our enthusiasm regarding the drug's sales potential is growing. Although detailed PALACE-4 data should be available soon, MTX-naives will not be CELG's initial focus, which we believe is logical, given likely payor resistance to diminished MTX use.
Continuing strong Pomalyst launch. The Pomalyst launch continues to exceed CELG's internal expectations and initial physician enthusiasm regarding use of the drug in advanced MM remains high. The company sees minimal competitive threat to Pomalyst from Kyprolis, given the drugs' complementary mechanisms. Consistent with CELG's stance, we expect Pomalyst's launch to continue to exceed expectations.
Abraxane adoption in front-line pancreatic cancer (PC) should be rapid....based on the company's expectation, which we share, that Abraxane+gemcitabine will rapidly become the front-line PC stand