BMO takes the top spot "Revlimid/Pipeline Expansion Thesis Intact.. expect a meaningful update to long-term guidance in January... Raise target from $180.00 to $200.00"
Celgene Target Raise $180.00 to $200.00
Revlimid/Pipeline Expansion Thesis Intact, No Major Concern on Timelines
Celgene (CELG) hosted a conference call earlier today to review 3Q13 operating results and key initiatives. Results were better-than-expected with above-consensus product sales, revenues, and non-GAAP EPS, and guidance has increased modestly on the top line and bottom line. Sequential sales growth for Revlimid of 1% followed a 10% sequential increase in 2Q13 and was described as following a similar pattern as in prior years. With the primary focus on prospects for growth beyond 3Q13, no update was provided on longer-term 2017 guidance, although base assumptions for Revlimid, apremilast and Abraxane were described as de-risked. With particular emphasis on Revlimid filing for frontline maintenance use in the US and EU, timelines for regulatory submission were extended to 1Q14 from 4Q13 as CELG seeks to assure a complete submission that addresses all feedback from regulators. Filing in the EU seems primarily focused on non-transplant eligible patients, although data from two studies in transplant-eligible patients will be provided as well.
Impact & Analysis:We are maintaining our Outperform rating on shares of CELG following review of 3Q13 results. s. We expect Revlimid sales to reaccelerate into year end 2013, based on prior years’ experience, and continue to expect strong MM-020 data to support confidence in frontline maintenance approval in both the US and EU. Long-term 2017 guidance can be achieved on transplant-ineligible patients alone, and with MM-020 de-risking, along with de-risking of Abraxane and apremilast, we expect a meaningful update to long-term guidance in January.