speculation has it that the sales for thalomid for the first month of sales will be better than most of us expected.if you just figure in the patients from the compassionate use program you already have aprox. 1000 patients. Then, if you take the expected beginning amount of doctors which is said to be 2000, and allocate 2 patients for each doctor, you could have up to 5000 patients.you can easily rationalize that the total number of patients will increase dramatically as more doctors join up.backing this tremendous off label use is the fact that celgene is daeling with 50 different indications as stated in a recent press release. The real question is what happens to those patients taking thalomid for cancer once entremed gets their approval in aprox 2 years.will celgene be able to hold onto some of the cancer business? Will celgene and entremed as rumored in august make a deal which will share profits but keep the price from being marked-down in a price war? Although these questions bring concern to future celgene revenues the revenues for at lease the next 2 years are extrodinarily promising while it's always beneficial to be the first one out with a drug on the market. when you figure in the potential of celgro which can be spun off and celgenes version of ritalin,thalidomide analogs.celcids,etc, celgenes acceptance into the investment community will be coming very soon.
Whether you are a Celgene supporter or detractor, the last post by zevie1 seems to be fair and conservative on revenues but realistic on future concerns regarding ENMD's Thalidomide eventual approval. Anyone with any ideas on this subject please post.
ENMD is now in Phase II of testing...next is phase III. After phase III data must be submitted and a control program such as CELG has must be in place. Based on the history that Celgene went through I would estimate at least 3 years or more for ENMD to be able to market thalidomide. During this period Celgene, doctors will being using thalidomide from CELG.